Maxine Waters secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2 primary for California's 43rd congressional district with roughly 63 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Cristian Morales in the solidly Democratic seat she has held since 1991. The district's consistent partisan tilt, reflected in repeated double-digit margins and nonpartisan ratings of Solid Democratic, underpins trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5 percent implied probability. Morales captured the top Republican spot but faces structural barriers in a Los Angeles County area that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal, significant health events, or an unexpected national political realignment remain the primary factors that could still alter the general-election outcome on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-43 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-43 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$24,059 Vol.
$24,059 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
5%
$24,059 Vol.
$24,059 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$9,491 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$14,567 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maxine Waters secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2 primary for California's 43rd congressional district with roughly 63 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Cristian Morales in the solidly Democratic seat she has held since 1991. The district's consistent partisan tilt, reflected in repeated double-digit margins and nonpartisan ratings of Solid Democratic, underpins trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5 percent implied probability. Morales captured the top Republican spot but faces structural barriers in a Los Angeles County area that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal, significant health events, or an unexpected national political realignment remain the primary factors that could still alter the general-election outcome on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$24,059Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maxine Waters secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2 primary for California's 43rd congressional district with roughly 63 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Cristian Morales in the solidly Democratic seat she has held since 1991. The district's consistent partisan tilt, reflected in repeated double-digit margins and nonpartisan ratings of Solid Democratic, underpins trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5 percent implied probability. Morales captured the top Republican spot but faces structural barriers in a Los Angeles County area that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal, significant health events, or an unexpected national political realignment remain the primary factors that could still alter the general-election outcome on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-43 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,059Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maxine Waters secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2 primary for California's 43rd congressional district with roughly 63 percent of the vote, advancing against Republican Cristian Morales in the solidly Democratic seat she has held since 1991. The district's consistent partisan tilt, reflected in repeated double-digit margins and nonpartisan ratings of Solid Democratic, underpins trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party a 94.5 percent implied probability. Morales captured the top Republican spot but faces structural barriers in a Los Angeles County area that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Late developments such as candidate withdrawal, significant health events, or an unexpected national political realignment remain the primary factors that could still alter the general-election outcome on November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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