California’s 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic voter registration advantage exceeding 60 percent, with Republicans below 10 percent. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement after decades in the seat opened the race, but the June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, with no Republican advancing in competitive numbers. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders’ 97 percent consensus on a Democratic winner reflects this partisan composition and primary outcome. A shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal affecting both nominees or a late independent or Republican surge in a district with limited historical crossover support.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-11
Parti démocrate
97%
Parti républicain
3%
Parti démocrate
97%
Parti républicain
3%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...California’s 11th congressional district, encompassing much of San Francisco, maintains a strong Democratic voter registration advantage exceeding 60 percent, with Republicans below 10 percent. Nancy Pelosi’s retirement after decades in the seat opened the race, but the June 2, 2026, top-two primary advanced only Democratic candidates Scott Wiener and Connie Chan to the November general election, with no Republican advancing in competitive numbers. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic. Traders’ 97 percent consensus on a Democratic winner reflects this partisan composition and primary outcome. A shift would require an unforeseen development such as a major scandal affecting both nominees or a late independent or Republican surge in a district with limited historical crossover support.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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