Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 race due to the district's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe or Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. As the long-serving incumbent with strong name recognition and committee roles, LaHood benefits from a wide fundraising edge exceeding $3 million raised against Nolley's roughly $400,000, alongside endorsements from local Republican organizations. The June 2026 primary outcomes and absence of major polling shifts or scandals have reinforced trader consensus around the 93% implied probability. A late national partisan wave, significant controversy involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in rural counties could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-16
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre IL-16
$38,992 Vol.
$38,992 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
7%
$38,992 Vol.
$38,992 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
$15,407 Vol.
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
$23,585 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 race due to the district's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe or Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. As the long-serving incumbent with strong name recognition and committee roles, LaHood benefits from a wide fundraising edge exceeding $3 million raised against Nolley's roughly $400,000, alongside endorsements from local Republican organizations. The June 2026 primary outcomes and absence of major polling shifts or scandals have reinforced trader consensus around the 93% implied probability. A late national partisan wave, significant controversy involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in rural counties could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$38,992Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 race due to the district's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe or Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. As the long-serving incumbent with strong name recognition and committee roles, LaHood benefits from a wide fundraising edge exceeding $3 million raised against Nolley's roughly $400,000, alongside endorsements from local Republican organizations. The June 2026 primary outcomes and absence of major polling shifts or scandals have reinforced trader consensus around the 93% implied probability. A late national partisan wave, significant controversy involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in rural counties could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,992Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 race due to the district's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe or Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. As the long-serving incumbent with strong name recognition and committee roles, LaHood benefits from a wide fundraising edge exceeding $3 million raised against Nolley's roughly $400,000, alongside endorsements from local Republican organizations. The June 2026 primary outcomes and absence of major polling shifts or scandals have reinforced trader consensus around the 93% implied probability. A late national partisan wave, significant controversy involving the incumbent, or unusually high Democratic turnout in rural counties could narrow the margin, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November 3 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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