Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads trader consensus at 66% implied probability to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his 2024 primary victory over challenger Cori Bush and a commanding fundraising edge, with recent filings showing roughly 10 times more cash on hand as of late April. Bush, seeking a comeback after her ouster amid heavy AIPAC spending, trails at 30.5% despite a February internal poll depicting a 44%-40% tie among likely voters within the margin of error. Recent catalysts include Bell's April 17 debate challenge to Bush and his May 4 comments on a Supreme Court voting rights ruling potentially impacting district lines, while a May 3 ward forum saw Bush attend in person as Bell sent a surrogate, underscoring the rematch's competitiveness amid undecided voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$10,083 Vol.
$10,083 Vol.
Wesley Bell
67%
Cori Bush
31%
$10,083 Vol.
$10,083 Vol.
Wesley Bell
67%
Cori Bush
31%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads trader consensus at 66% implied probability to win Missouri's 1st Congressional District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his 2024 primary victory over challenger Cori Bush and a commanding fundraising edge, with recent filings showing roughly 10 times more cash on hand as of late April. Bush, seeking a comeback after her ouster amid heavy AIPAC spending, trails at 30.5% despite a February internal poll depicting a 44%-40% tie among likely voters within the margin of error. Recent catalysts include Bell's April 17 debate challenge to Bush and his May 4 comments on a Supreme Court voting rights ruling potentially impacting district lines, while a May 3 ward forum saw Bush attend in person as Bell sent a surrogate, underscoring the rematch's competitiveness amid undecided voters.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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