Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured his party's nomination with 76 percent of the primary vote in March 2026 and faces Republican Niki Conforti, who won her primary with 82 percent, in the November general election for Illinois's 6th congressional district. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3 and has favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Casten's 54 percent victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with the market's 94.7 percent consensus for the Democratic nominee. Factors that could shift these probabilities include national political conditions, turnout patterns among suburban voters, or late developments affecting either candidate's campaign.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIL-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IL-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$32,052 Vol.
$32,052 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
5%
$32,052 Vol.
$32,052 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$11,925 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$20,127 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured his party's nomination with 76 percent of the primary vote in March 2026 and faces Republican Niki Conforti, who won her primary with 82 percent, in the November general election for Illinois's 6th congressional district. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3 and has favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Casten's 54 percent victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with the market's 94.7 percent consensus for the Democratic nominee. Factors that could shift these probabilities include national political conditions, turnout patterns among suburban voters, or late developments affecting either candidate's campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$32,052Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured his party's nomination with 76 percent of the primary vote in March 2026 and faces Republican Niki Conforti, who won her primary with 82 percent, in the November general election for Illinois's 6th congressional district. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3 and has favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Casten's 54 percent victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with the market's 94.7 percent consensus for the Democratic nominee. Factors that could shift these probabilities include national political conditions, turnout patterns among suburban voters, or late developments affecting either candidate's campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,052Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured his party's nomination with 76 percent of the primary vote in March 2026 and faces Republican Niki Conforti, who won her primary with 82 percent, in the November general election for Illinois's 6th congressional district. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3 and has favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles, including Casten's 54 percent victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic, aligning with the market's 94.7 percent consensus for the Democratic nominee. Factors that could shift these probabilities include national political conditions, turnout patterns among suburban voters, or late developments affecting either candidate's campaign.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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