Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent in a race covering parts of San Bernardino and surrounding counties. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.2 percent. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major polling shifts or late developments altering the positioning. A significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit the scope for reversal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-23
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-23
$60,553 Vol.
$60,553 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
6%
$60,553 Vol.
$60,553 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$28,392 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$32,161 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent in a race covering parts of San Bernardino and surrounding counties. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.2 percent. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major polling shifts or late developments altering the positioning. A significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit the scope for reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$60,553Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent in a race covering parts of San Bernardino and surrounding counties. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.2 percent. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major polling shifts or late developments altering the positioning. A significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit the scope for reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$60,553Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 57 percent of the vote against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge, who received 21 percent in a race covering parts of San Bernardino and surrounding counties. The district's established Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point margin there in 2024 and a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+9, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 93.2 percent. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election, with no major polling shifts or late developments altering the positioning. A significant scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Democratic national environment could narrow the gap, though structural factors limit the scope for reversal.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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