The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably from the June 2 primary alongside another Democrat, with Republican write-in support registering near zero amid 64% Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean exceeding D+35. Historical results in the seat and the absence of viable opposition candidates further reinforce this positioning. A Democratic hold remains the baseline expectation, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals or unforeseen legal issues could theoretically alter the field before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-12
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-12
$40,930 Vol.
$40,930 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
4%
$40,930 Vol.
$40,930 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$24,042 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$16,887 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably from the June 2 primary alongside another Democrat, with Republican write-in support registering near zero amid 64% Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean exceeding D+35. Historical results in the seat and the absence of viable opposition candidates further reinforce this positioning. A Democratic hold remains the baseline expectation, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals or unforeseen legal issues could theoretically alter the field before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$40,930Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably from the June 2 primary alongside another Democrat, with Republican write-in support registering near zero amid 64% Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean exceeding D+35. Historical results in the seat and the absence of viable opposition candidates further reinforce this positioning. A Democratic hold remains the baseline expectation, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals or unforeseen legal issues could theoretically alter the field before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,930Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic composition of California's 12th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay including Oakland and Berkeley, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Lateefah Simon advanced comfortably from the June 2 primary alongside another Democrat, with Republican write-in support registering near zero amid 64% Democratic voter registration and a partisan lean exceeding D+35. Historical results in the seat and the absence of viable opposition candidates further reinforce this positioning. A Democratic hold remains the baseline expectation, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals or unforeseen legal issues could theoretically alter the field before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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