Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where she captured roughly 84 percent of the vote against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, has anchored trader consensus on a Democratic outcome in California's 12th congressional district. The district's D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent history of delivering large Democratic majorities limit any realistic path for Republican advancement, with no GOP candidate reaching the November 3 general election ballot. Simon's fundraising advantage, labor and progressive endorsements, and incumbency further reinforce the position. A Democratic victory remains the near-certain result under current conditions, though an unforeseen late development such as candidate withdrawal or major scandal could theoretically alter the general election matchup between the two Democrats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-12
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-12
$44,263 Vol.
$44,263 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
98%
Parti républicain
<1%
$44,263 Vol.
$44,263 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$27,011 Vol.
98%
Parti républicain
$17,251 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where she captured roughly 84 percent of the vote against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, has anchored trader consensus on a Democratic outcome in California's 12th congressional district. The district's D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent history of delivering large Democratic majorities limit any realistic path for Republican advancement, with no GOP candidate reaching the November 3 general election ballot. Simon's fundraising advantage, labor and progressive endorsements, and incumbency further reinforce the position. A Democratic victory remains the near-certain result under current conditions, though an unforeseen late development such as candidate withdrawal or major scandal could theoretically alter the general election matchup between the two Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$44,263Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where she captured roughly 84 percent of the vote against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, has anchored trader consensus on a Democratic outcome in California's 12th congressional district. The district's D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent history of delivering large Democratic majorities limit any realistic path for Republican advancement, with no GOP candidate reaching the November 3 general election ballot. Simon's fundraising advantage, labor and progressive endorsements, and incumbency further reinforce the position. A Democratic victory remains the near-certain result under current conditions, though an unforeseen late development such as candidate withdrawal or major scandal could theoretically alter the general election matchup between the two Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,263Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Lateefah Simon's strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary, where she captured roughly 84 percent of the vote against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce, has anchored trader consensus on a Democratic outcome in California's 12th congressional district. The district's D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent history of delivering large Democratic majorities limit any realistic path for Republican advancement, with no GOP candidate reaching the November 3 general election ballot. Simon's fundraising advantage, labor and progressive endorsements, and incumbency further reinforce the position. A Democratic victory remains the near-certain result under current conditions, though an unforeseen late development such as candidate withdrawal or major scandal could theoretically alter the general election matchup between the two Democrats.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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