The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+33 and consistent large margins in Manhattan-based federal races, anchors trader consensus near 97% for the Democratic nominee. Jerrold Nadler's retirement created an open seat that produced a competitive June 2026 primary won by Micah Lasher, who now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising patterns in the area further reinforce the frontrunner's position. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health issue, or sharp national political realignment could still shift odds, though historical patterns in comparably lopsided districts indicate such reversals remain uncommon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-12
Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-12
$32,646 Vol.
$32,646 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
97%
Parti républicain
2%
$32,646 Vol.
$32,646 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$17,192 Vol.
97%
Parti républicain
$15,454 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+33 and consistent large margins in Manhattan-based federal races, anchors trader consensus near 97% for the Democratic nominee. Jerrold Nadler's retirement created an open seat that produced a competitive June 2026 primary won by Micah Lasher, who now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising patterns in the area further reinforce the frontrunner's position. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health issue, or sharp national political realignment could still shift odds, though historical patterns in comparably lopsided districts indicate such reversals remain uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,646Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+33 and consistent large margins in Manhattan-based federal races, anchors trader consensus near 97% for the Democratic nominee. Jerrold Nadler's retirement created an open seat that produced a competitive June 2026 primary won by Micah Lasher, who now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising patterns in the area further reinforce the frontrunner's position. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health issue, or sharp national political realignment could still shift odds, though historical patterns in comparably lopsided districts indicate such reversals remain uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,646Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's pronounced Democratic tilt, with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around D+33 and consistent large margins in Manhattan-based federal races, anchors trader consensus near 97% for the Democratic nominee. Jerrold Nadler's retirement created an open seat that produced a competitive June 2026 primary won by Micah Lasher, who now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. Limited Republican infrastructure and fundraising patterns in the area further reinforce the frontrunner's position. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, health issue, or sharp national political realignment could still shift odds, though historical patterns in comparably lopsided districts indicate such reversals remain uncommon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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