Democratic incumbent Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory, securing roughly 60% of the vote in the seat vacated by Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats in the November general election. The district's D+5 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles further reinforce this positioning, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as solid Democratic. Joe Hathaway's Republican nomination faces structural headwinds in a suburban district that has trended blue. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited pathways for an upset absent major developments before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNJ-11 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NJ-11 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$39,527 Vol.
$39,527 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$39,527 Vol.
$39,527 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$23,573 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$15,955 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory, securing roughly 60% of the vote in the seat vacated by Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats in the November general election. The district's D+5 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles further reinforce this positioning, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as solid Democratic. Joe Hathaway's Republican nomination faces structural headwinds in a suburban district that has trended blue. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited pathways for an upset absent major developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$39,527Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory, securing roughly 60% of the vote in the seat vacated by Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats in the November general election. The district's D+5 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles further reinforce this positioning, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as solid Democratic. Joe Hathaway's Republican nomination faces structural headwinds in a suburban district that has trended blue. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited pathways for an upset absent major developments before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,527Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Analilia Mejia's decisive April 2026 special election victory, securing roughly 60% of the vote in the seat vacated by Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill, anchors the strong trader consensus favoring Democrats in the November general election. The district's D+5 partisan voter index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles further reinforce this positioning, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as solid Democratic. Joe Hathaway's Republican nomination faces structural headwinds in a suburban district that has trended blue. Late-cycle national shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns in comparable districts suggest limited pathways for an upset absent major developments before Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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