Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in New York’s 11th congressional district, where trader consensus assigns her party a 93% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election. The Staten Island-based seat has shifted rightward since 2020, driven by its working-class electorate of police, firefighters, and blue-collar voters, producing consistent Republican margins above 60% in recent cycles. Malliotakis secured renomination without opposition in the June 2026 primary, while Democrat Michael DeCillis emerged from his contest, yet faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts. Potential shifts could arise from a national Democratic midterm surge, late-cycle scandals, or unusually high turnout changes, though historical patterns and the district’s partisan lean limit realistic paths for an upset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-11
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-11
$25,548 Vol.
$25,548 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
93%
Parti démocrate
7%
$25,548 Vol.
$25,548 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$12,614 Vol.
93%
Parti démocrate
$12,934 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in New York’s 11th congressional district, where trader consensus assigns her party a 93% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election. The Staten Island-based seat has shifted rightward since 2020, driven by its working-class electorate of police, firefighters, and blue-collar voters, producing consistent Republican margins above 60% in recent cycles. Malliotakis secured renomination without opposition in the June 2026 primary, while Democrat Michael DeCillis emerged from his contest, yet faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts. Potential shifts could arise from a national Democratic midterm surge, late-cycle scandals, or unusually high turnout changes, though historical patterns and the district’s partisan lean limit realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$25,548Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in New York’s 11th congressional district, where trader consensus assigns her party a 93% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election. The Staten Island-based seat has shifted rightward since 2020, driven by its working-class electorate of police, firefighters, and blue-collar voters, producing consistent Republican margins above 60% in recent cycles. Malliotakis secured renomination without opposition in the June 2026 primary, while Democrat Michael DeCillis emerged from his contest, yet faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts. Potential shifts could arise from a national Democratic midterm surge, late-cycle scandals, or unusually high turnout changes, though historical patterns and the district’s partisan lean limit realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,548Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nicole Malliotakis holds a commanding position in New York’s 11th congressional district, where trader consensus assigns her party a 93% implied probability of victory in the November 2026 general election. The Staten Island-based seat has shifted rightward since 2020, driven by its working-class electorate of police, firefighters, and blue-collar voters, producing consistent Republican margins above 60% in recent cycles. Malliotakis secured renomination without opposition in the June 2026 primary, while Democrat Michael DeCillis emerged from his contest, yet faces structural headwinds in a district rated Solid Republican by nonpartisan analysts. Potential shifts could arise from a national Democratic midterm surge, late-cycle scandals, or unusually high turnout changes, though historical patterns and the district’s partisan lean limit realistic paths for an upset.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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