John McGuire secured the Republican nomination with 84% in the August primary and holds an 84% implied probability in the November general election for Virginia’s 5th congressional district, reflecting the area’s Republican baseline and his 2024 general-election margin. The district’s partisan lean, combined with McGuire’s conservative voting record on issues such as armed services, oversight, and alignment with Trump-era priorities, has sustained trader expectations of an incumbent victory. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former district representative, won his primary decisively and has raised more than McGuire while holding a substantial cash advantage, yet faces structural headwinds. A late-July poll showed the race within the margin of error, and Perriello has launched ads and joined a joint fundraising effort with other Virginia Democrats; however, McGuire’s refusal to debate pending an apology over insider-trading remarks underscores ongoing campaign friction without shifting the overall market positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants VA-05
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants VA-05
$66,868 Vol.
$66,868 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
John McGuire (R)
84%
Tom Perriello (D)
17%
$66,868 Vol.
$66,868 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
John McGuire (R)
$32,613 Vol.
84%
Tom Perriello (D)
$34,255 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John McGuire secured the Republican nomination with 84% in the August primary and holds an 84% implied probability in the November general election for Virginia’s 5th congressional district, reflecting the area’s Republican baseline and his 2024 general-election margin. The district’s partisan lean, combined with McGuire’s conservative voting record on issues such as armed services, oversight, and alignment with Trump-era priorities, has sustained trader expectations of an incumbent victory. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former district representative, won his primary decisively and has raised more than McGuire while holding a substantial cash advantage, yet faces structural headwinds. A late-July poll showed the race within the margin of error, and Perriello has launched ads and joined a joint fundraising effort with other Virginia Democrats; however, McGuire’s refusal to debate pending an apology over insider-trading remarks underscores ongoing campaign friction without shifting the overall market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$66,868Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).John McGuire secured the Republican nomination with 84% in the August primary and holds an 84% implied probability in the November general election for Virginia’s 5th congressional district, reflecting the area’s Republican baseline and his 2024 general-election margin. The district’s partisan lean, combined with McGuire’s conservative voting record on issues such as armed services, oversight, and alignment with Trump-era priorities, has sustained trader expectations of an incumbent victory. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former district representative, won his primary decisively and has raised more than McGuire while holding a substantial cash advantage, yet faces structural headwinds. A late-July poll showed the race within the margin of error, and Perriello has launched ads and joined a joint fundraising effort with other Virginia Democrats; however, McGuire’s refusal to debate pending an apology over insider-trading remarks underscores ongoing campaign friction without shifting the overall market positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$66,868Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...John McGuire secured the Republican nomination with 84% in the August primary and holds an 84% implied probability in the November general election for Virginia’s 5th congressional district, reflecting the area’s Republican baseline and his 2024 general-election margin. The district’s partisan lean, combined with McGuire’s conservative voting record on issues such as armed services, oversight, and alignment with Trump-era priorities, has sustained trader expectations of an incumbent victory. Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee and former district representative, won his primary decisively and has raised more than McGuire while holding a substantial cash advantage, yet faces structural headwinds. A late-July poll showed the race within the margin of error, and Perriello has launched ads and joined a joint fundraising effort with other Virginia Democrats; however, McGuire’s refusal to debate pending an apology over insider-trading remarks underscores ongoing campaign friction without shifting the overall market positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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