Brad Finstad, the Republican incumbent, holds an 82% implied probability in the MN-01 House race due to the district’s R+6 partisan voting index and his 17-point 2024 victory. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, citing Finstad’s strong primary performance and established support in southern Minnesota’s agricultural and rural counties. Jake Johnson, the Democratic nominee and political newcomer, has narrowed the gap through aggressive grassroots outreach, including dozens of town halls, and near-parity in fundraising at roughly $2 million each. A high-profile endorsement from former Republican Governor Arne Carlson has drawn national Democratic attention, but polling averages and models still project Finstad winning by double digits. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts absent major developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMN-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MN-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$42,428 Vol.
$42,428 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Brad Finstad (R)
82%
Jake Johnson (D)
18%
$42,428 Vol.
$42,428 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Brad Finstad (R)
$16,042 Vol.
82%
Jake Johnson (D)
$26,386 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brad Finstad, the Republican incumbent, holds an 82% implied probability in the MN-01 House race due to the district’s R+6 partisan voting index and his 17-point 2024 victory. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, citing Finstad’s strong primary performance and established support in southern Minnesota’s agricultural and rural counties. Jake Johnson, the Democratic nominee and political newcomer, has narrowed the gap through aggressive grassroots outreach, including dozens of town halls, and near-parity in fundraising at roughly $2 million each. A high-profile endorsement from former Republican Governor Arne Carlson has drawn national Democratic attention, but polling averages and models still project Finstad winning by double digits. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts absent major developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$42,428Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Brad Finstad, the Republican incumbent, holds an 82% implied probability in the MN-01 House race due to the district’s R+6 partisan voting index and his 17-point 2024 victory. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, citing Finstad’s strong primary performance and established support in southern Minnesota’s agricultural and rural counties. Jake Johnson, the Democratic nominee and political newcomer, has narrowed the gap through aggressive grassroots outreach, including dozens of town halls, and near-parity in fundraising at roughly $2 million each. A high-profile endorsement from former Republican Governor Arne Carlson has drawn national Democratic attention, but polling averages and models still project Finstad winning by double digits. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts absent major developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$42,428Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Brad Finstad, the Republican incumbent, holds an 82% implied probability in the MN-01 House race due to the district’s R+6 partisan voting index and his 17-point 2024 victory. Forecasters rate the contest Likely or Solid Republican, citing Finstad’s strong primary performance and established support in southern Minnesota’s agricultural and rural counties. Jake Johnson, the Democratic nominee and political newcomer, has narrowed the gap through aggressive grassroots outreach, including dozens of town halls, and near-parity in fundraising at roughly $2 million each. A high-profile endorsement from former Republican Governor Arne Carlson has drawn national Democratic attention, but polling averages and models still project Finstad winning by double digits. The November 3 general election timeline leaves limited room for late shifts absent major developments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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