**Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads the market at 76% as Parti Québécois polling strength positions the party for a plurality of seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec election.** Recent surveys from Léger and Pallas Data show the PQ holding steady near 29% popular support, ahead of the CAQ at 23%, Liberals at 22%, Conservatives at 15%, and Québec solidaire at 10%. Aggregators such as 338Canada assign the PQ an 87% chance of winning the most seats and roughly 19% odds of a majority, reflecting sustained anti-incumbent sentiment after eight years of CAQ governance under François Legault and his successor. Christine Fréchette, who became CAQ leader and Premier in April 2026, trails in the market at 20% amid voter fatigue and debates over sovereignty, economic management, U.S. tariffs, healthcare, and housing. Charles Milliard of the Liberals sits at 3%, while other candidates remain at 0.2% or below. The campaign, underway since late August, has featured early debates and emphasis on independence timing, with Plamondon pledging a post-2029 referendum. Traders appear to price the PQ’s consistent lead and seat projections as the dominant driver of the outcome.