Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election with roughly 70 percent of the vote to succeed her late father, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district. The majority-Hispanic district covering much of Arizona’s border with Mexico carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. With primaries scheduled for July 21, 2026, and the general election on November 3, trader consensus prices the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent largely due to incumbency, the district’s consistent voting patterns, and limited Republican infrastructure. A narrow path for the Republican nominee would require an unusually large national swing, a major unforeseen development involving the incumbent, or a sharp shift in local turnout dynamics that has not materialized in recent cycles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAZ-07 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$12,503 Vol.
$12,503 Vol.
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
6%
$12,503 Vol.
$12,503 Vol.
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
6%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent who won a September 2025 special election with roughly 70 percent of the vote to succeed her late father, holds a commanding position in Arizona’s 7th congressional district. The majority-Hispanic district covering much of Arizona’s border with Mexico carries a strong Democratic partisan lean reflected in nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. With primaries scheduled for July 21, 2026, and the general election on November 3, trader consensus prices the Democratic nominee at 93.5 percent largely due to incumbency, the district’s consistent voting patterns, and limited Republican infrastructure. A narrow path for the Republican nominee would require an unusually large national swing, a major unforeseen development involving the incumbent, or a sharp shift in local turnout dynamics that has not materialized in recent cycles.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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