Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 7th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The seat became open following the 2025 death of longtime representative Raúl Grijalva; his daughter won the subsequent special election and easily secured the Democratic nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary. The district’s strong partisan lean—reflected in its D+13 to D+50 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Safe D” or “Solid D” ratings from multiple forecasters—anchors trader consensus near 95 percent for the Democratic nominee. Republican candidate Daniel Butierez faces structural barriers in a Hispanic-majority border district that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Only an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, candidate health crisis, or dramatic national political shift would realistically alter the current implied probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAZ-07 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
AZ-07 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$14,353 Vol.
$14,353 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$14,353 Vol.
$14,353 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$5,794 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$8,558 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 7th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The seat became open following the 2025 death of longtime representative Raúl Grijalva; his daughter won the subsequent special election and easily secured the Democratic nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary. The district’s strong partisan lean—reflected in its D+13 to D+50 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Safe D” or “Solid D” ratings from multiple forecasters—anchors trader consensus near 95 percent for the Democratic nominee. Republican candidate Daniel Butierez faces structural barriers in a Hispanic-majority border district that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Only an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, candidate health crisis, or dramatic national political shift would realistically alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$14,353Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 7th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The seat became open following the 2025 death of longtime representative Raúl Grijalva; his daughter won the subsequent special election and easily secured the Democratic nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary. The district’s strong partisan lean—reflected in its D+13 to D+50 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Safe D” or “Solid D” ratings from multiple forecasters—anchors trader consensus near 95 percent for the Democratic nominee. Republican candidate Daniel Butierez faces structural barriers in a Hispanic-majority border district that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Only an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, candidate health crisis, or dramatic national political shift would realistically alter the current implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$14,353Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Adelita Grijalva, the Democratic incumbent, holds a commanding lead in Arizona’s 7th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The seat became open following the 2025 death of longtime representative Raúl Grijalva; his daughter won the subsequent special election and easily secured the Democratic nomination in the July 21, 2026 primary. The district’s strong partisan lean—reflected in its D+13 to D+50 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent “Safe D” or “Solid D” ratings from multiple forecasters—anchors trader consensus near 95 percent for the Democratic nominee. Republican candidate Daniel Butierez faces structural barriers in a Hispanic-majority border district that has favored Democrats by wide margins in recent cycles. Only an unforeseen development such as a major scandal, candidate health crisis, or dramatic national political shift would realistically alter the current implied probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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