Kathy Castor's position as the nine-term Democratic incumbent, combined with her established name recognition and fundraising advantage exceeding $2.3 million, underpins her 64.5% implied probability in the FL-14 general election. Redistricting shifted the Hillsborough County-based seat toward Republican-leaning areas, where Donald Trump carried the new lines by roughly 11 points in 2024, creating a more competitive environment. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote, outpacing Kevin Steele, and has drawn national party support along with over $2.1 million raised. A July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%, though ratings from outlets like Cook and Sabato classify the race as a toss-up or lean Republican. Traders appear to weigh Castor's incumbency edge against the district's partisan shift ahead of the November 3 contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre FL-14
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre FL-14
$45,801 Vol.
$45,801 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
64%
Mike Beltran (R)
36%
$45,801 Vol.
$45,801 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Kathy Castor (D)
$23,520 Vol.
64%
Mike Beltran (R)
$22,281 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor's position as the nine-term Democratic incumbent, combined with her established name recognition and fundraising advantage exceeding $2.3 million, underpins her 64.5% implied probability in the FL-14 general election. Redistricting shifted the Hillsborough County-based seat toward Republican-leaning areas, where Donald Trump carried the new lines by roughly 11 points in 2024, creating a more competitive environment. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote, outpacing Kevin Steele, and has drawn national party support along with over $2.1 million raised. A July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%, though ratings from outlets like Cook and Sabato classify the race as a toss-up or lean Republican. Traders appear to weigh Castor's incumbency edge against the district's partisan shift ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$45,801Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kathy Castor's position as the nine-term Democratic incumbent, combined with her established name recognition and fundraising advantage exceeding $2.3 million, underpins her 64.5% implied probability in the FL-14 general election. Redistricting shifted the Hillsborough County-based seat toward Republican-leaning areas, where Donald Trump carried the new lines by roughly 11 points in 2024, creating a more competitive environment. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote, outpacing Kevin Steele, and has drawn national party support along with over $2.1 million raised. A July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%, though ratings from outlets like Cook and Sabato classify the race as a toss-up or lean Republican. Traders appear to weigh Castor's incumbency edge against the district's partisan shift ahead of the November 3 contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,801Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Kathy Castor's position as the nine-term Democratic incumbent, combined with her established name recognition and fundraising advantage exceeding $2.3 million, underpins her 64.5% implied probability in the FL-14 general election. Redistricting shifted the Hillsborough County-based seat toward Republican-leaning areas, where Donald Trump carried the new lines by roughly 11 points in 2024, creating a more competitive environment. Mike Beltran secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 45.6% of the vote, outpacing Kevin Steele, and has drawn national party support along with over $2.1 million raised. A July poll showed Castor ahead 46%-38%, though ratings from outlets like Cook and Sabato classify the race as a toss-up or lean Republican. Traders appear to weigh Castor's incumbency edge against the district's partisan shift ahead of the November 3 contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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