The TX-20 district’s pronounced Democratic lean, rooted in its urban San Antonio demographics and consistent electoral history, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination with over 88% in the March 2026 primary and faces minimal Republican opposition in the general election on November 3. Forecasters rate the seat Safe Democratic, reflecting structural advantages in voter registration and past margins exceeding 30 points. A late scandal, health development, or unforeseen national wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts have rarely altered outcomes in comparably partisan districts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre TX-20
$10,988 Vol.
$10,988 Vol.
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
7%
$10,988 Vol.
$10,988 Vol.
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
7%
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The TX-20 district’s pronounced Democratic lean, rooted in its urban San Antonio demographics and consistent electoral history, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 93.5%. Incumbent Joaquin Castro secured renomination with over 88% in the March 2026 primary and faces minimal Republican opposition in the general election on November 3. Forecasters rate the seat Safe Democratic, reflecting structural advantages in voter registration and past margins exceeding 30 points. A late scandal, health development, or unforeseen national wave could theoretically narrow the gap, though such shifts have rarely altered outcomes in comparably partisan districts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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