Florida's 19th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat following Rep. Byron Donalds' decision to run for governor, leaving an open contest on the November 3, 2026, general election ballot. Jim Schwartzel secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 29.1% in a crowded field that included Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf and others, aided by strong local fundraising, business ties in Southwest Florida, and endorsements from figures such as Rep. Jim Jordan. Victor Arias won the Democratic primary with 45.5%. The district's partisan composition—reflected in prior Republican presidential margins exceeding 30 points under the current map—underpins trader consensus on Schwartzel's position. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unanticipated national shift could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts indicate limited realistic pathways for the Democratic nominee.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre FL-19
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre FL-19
$17,850 Vol.
$17,850 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jim Schwartzel (R)
95%
Victor Arias (D)
6%
$17,850 Vol.
$17,850 Vol.
2 nov. 2026
Jim Schwartzel (R)
$6,159 Vol.
95%
Victor Arias (D)
$11,691 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 19th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat following Rep. Byron Donalds' decision to run for governor, leaving an open contest on the November 3, 2026, general election ballot. Jim Schwartzel secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 29.1% in a crowded field that included Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf and others, aided by strong local fundraising, business ties in Southwest Florida, and endorsements from figures such as Rep. Jim Jordan. Victor Arias won the Democratic primary with 45.5%. The district's partisan composition—reflected in prior Republican presidential margins exceeding 30 points under the current map—underpins trader consensus on Schwartzel's position. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unanticipated national shift could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts indicate limited realistic pathways for the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$17,850Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Florida's 19th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat following Rep. Byron Donalds' decision to run for governor, leaving an open contest on the November 3, 2026, general election ballot. Jim Schwartzel secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 29.1% in a crowded field that included Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf and others, aided by strong local fundraising, business ties in Southwest Florida, and endorsements from figures such as Rep. Jim Jordan. Victor Arias won the Democratic primary with 45.5%. The district's partisan composition—reflected in prior Republican presidential margins exceeding 30 points under the current map—underpins trader consensus on Schwartzel's position. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unanticipated national shift could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts indicate limited realistic pathways for the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,850Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Florida's 19th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat following Rep. Byron Donalds' decision to run for governor, leaving an open contest on the November 3, 2026, general election ballot. Jim Schwartzel secured the Republican nomination in the August 18 primary with 29.1% in a crowded field that included Trump-endorsed Catalina Lauf and others, aided by strong local fundraising, business ties in Southwest Florida, and endorsements from figures such as Rep. Jim Jordan. Victor Arias won the Democratic primary with 45.5%. The district's partisan composition—reflected in prior Republican presidential margins exceeding 30 points under the current map—underpins trader consensus on Schwartzel's position. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unanticipated national shift could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparable districts indicate limited realistic pathways for the Democratic nominee.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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