Trader consensus prices a 63% draw probability for Hikaru Nakamura vs. Wei Yi in FIDE Candidates 2026 Open Round 11, reflecting the solid defenses and risk aversion typical in classical chess among grandmasters tied at 4.5/10 points midway through the event. Nakamura, with white and a 2810 rating edge over Yi's 2754, holds a 25.5% win implied probability due to his superior Candidates experience, recent draw streak including Round 10 vs. Anish Giri, and a fumbled winning chance in their Round 4 draw as Black. Yi's 9% trails amid his parallel form—Round 10 draw vs. Fabiano Caruana after an early loss streak—positioning Nakamura as the modest favorite while both trail leader Javokhir Sindarov's 8/10.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIf Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Apr 9, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If Hikaru Nakamura wins, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match has been completed.
If the match is canceled entirely, with no make-up match, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Marché ouvert : Apr 9, 2026, 10:01 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://lichess.org/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a 63% draw probability for Hikaru Nakamura vs. Wei Yi in FIDE Candidates 2026 Open Round 11, reflecting the solid defenses and risk aversion typical in classical chess among grandmasters tied at 4.5/10 points midway through the event. Nakamura, with white and a 2810 rating edge over Yi's 2754, holds a 25.5% win implied probability due to his superior Candidates experience, recent draw streak including Round 10 vs. Anish Giri, and a fumbled winning chance in their Round 4 draw as Black. Yi's 9% trails amid his parallel form—Round 10 draw vs. Fabiano Caruana after an early loss streak—positioning Nakamura as the modest favorite while both trail leader Javokhir Sindarov's 8/10.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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