Persistent Middle East supply disruptions from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with production shut-ins exceeding 11 million barrels per day in May 2026, have anchored WTI crude near $88–$90 per barrel and elevated the market-implied probability of a June settlement above $84 to 65.5%. Sharp global inventory draws of 6.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter, combined with limited near-term OPEC+ relief, reinforce trader consensus around elevated price bands even as peace-talk optimism introduces volatility. Forward curves price in partial resolution risks later in the year, capping the odds of a $77–$84 close at 19.0% while leaving lower ranges with minimal implied probability. Upcoming diplomatic developments and weekly inventory data remain the key catalysts for any near-term repricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÀ quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
À quoi le pétrole brut (CL) se stabilisera-t-il en juin ?
>84 $ 66%
77 $–84 $ 19%
70 $ - 77 $ 9.0%
63 $-70 $ 2.6%
$222,923 Vol.
$222,923 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<42 $
<1%
42 $-49 $
1%
49 $–56 $
1%
56 $-63 $
1%
63 $-70 $
3%
70 $ - 77 $
9%
77 $–84 $
19%
>84 $
66%
>84 $ 66%
77 $–84 $ 19%
70 $ - 77 $ 9.0%
63 $-70 $ 2.6%
$222,923 Vol.
$222,923 Vol.
30 juin 2026
<42 $
$22,089 Vol.
<1%
42 $-49 $
$10,667 Vol.
1%
49 $–56 $
$12,698 Vol.
1%
56 $-63 $
$15,129 Vol.
1%
63 $-70 $
$28,887 Vol.
3%
70 $ - 77 $
$19,213 Vol.
9%
77 $–84 $
$19,772 Vol.
19%
>84 $
$94,468 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Persistent Middle East supply disruptions from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with production shut-ins exceeding 11 million barrels per day in May 2026, have anchored WTI crude near $88–$90 per barrel and elevated the market-implied probability of a June settlement above $84 to 65.5%. Sharp global inventory draws of 6.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter, combined with limited near-term OPEC+ relief, reinforce trader consensus around elevated price bands even as peace-talk optimism introduces volatility. Forward curves price in partial resolution risks later in the year, capping the odds of a $77–$84 close at 19.0% while leaving lower ranges with minimal implied probability. Upcoming diplomatic developments and weekly inventory data remain the key catalysts for any near-term repricing.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Volume
$222,923Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Persistent Middle East supply disruptions from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with production shut-ins exceeding 11 million barrels per day in May 2026, have anchored WTI crude near $88–$90 per barrel and elevated the market-implied probability of a June settlement above $84 to 65.5%. Sharp global inventory draws of 6.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter, combined with limited near-term OPEC+ relief, reinforce trader consensus around elevated price bands even as peace-talk optimism introduces volatility. Forward curves price in partial resolution risks later in the year, capping the odds of a $77–$84 close at 19.0% while leaving lower ranges with minimal implied probability. Upcoming diplomatic developments and weekly inventory data remain the key catalysts for any near-term repricing.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$222,923Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent Middle East supply disruptions from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with production shut-ins exceeding 11 million barrels per day in May 2026, have anchored WTI crude near $88–$90 per barrel and elevated the market-implied probability of a June settlement above $84 to 65.5%. Sharp global inventory draws of 6.3 million barrels per day in the second quarter, combined with limited near-term OPEC+ relief, reinforce trader consensus around elevated price bands even as peace-talk optimism introduces volatility. Forward curves price in partial resolution risks later in the year, capping the odds of a $77–$84 close at 19.0% while leaving lower ranges with minimal implied probability. Upcoming diplomatic developments and weekly inventory data remain the key catalysts for any near-term repricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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