Florida’s special Senate election leads trader expectations for the closest 2026 race after a mid-September St. Pete Polls survey showed Republican incumbent Ashley Moody tied with Democratic challenger Angie Nixon at roughly 45% each among likely voters. This outcome in a Republican-leaning state has drawn attention amid broader polling volatility. Several other contests also register as toss-ups or near-ties according to recent surveys and ratings from Cook Political Report and similar outlets, including Iowa, Texas, Michigan, the Ohio special, Nebraska, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Maine. These races feature narrow margins driven by candidate-specific dynamics, open seats, and a national environment reflected in Democratic-leaning generic ballot trends. Late-cycle shifts in turnout or additional polling could still alter relative positioning among these battlegrounds before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourIowa 13.6%
Texas 14%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 10.6%
$45,082 Vol.
$45,082 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Iowa
14%
Texas
14%
Michigan
11%
Ohio (Special)
11%
Nebraska
9%
Alaska
8%
Maine
5%
Montana
4%
Florida (Special)
11%
New Hampshire
4%
Virginia
4%
North Carolina
2%
Georgia
2%
New Mexico
1%
Minnesota
1%
Colorado
<1%
Iowa 13.6%
Texas 14%
Michigan 10.7%
Ohio (Special) 10.6%
$45,082 Vol.
$45,082 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Iowa
$3,298 Vol.
14%
Texas
$2,351 Vol.
14%
Michigan
$3,308 Vol.
11%
Ohio (Special)
$9,015 Vol.
11%
Nebraska
$3,609 Vol.
9%
Alaska
$8,357 Vol.
8%
Maine
$1,995 Vol.
5%
Montana
$1,653 Vol.
4%
Florida (Special)
$390 Vol.
11%
New Hampshire
$806 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
4%
North Carolina
$1,557 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$824 Vol.
2%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,569 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$1,117 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida’s special Senate election leads trader expectations for the closest 2026 race after a mid-September St. Pete Polls survey showed Republican incumbent Ashley Moody tied with Democratic challenger Angie Nixon at roughly 45% each among likely voters. This outcome in a Republican-leaning state has drawn attention amid broader polling volatility. Several other contests also register as toss-ups or near-ties according to recent surveys and ratings from Cook Political Report and similar outlets, including Iowa, Texas, Michigan, the Ohio special, Nebraska, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Maine. These races feature narrow margins driven by candidate-specific dynamics, open seats, and a national environment reflected in Democratic-leaning generic ballot trends. Late-cycle shifts in turnout or additional polling could still alter relative positioning among these battlegrounds before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$45,082Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Florida’s special Senate election leads trader expectations for the closest 2026 race after a mid-September St. Pete Polls survey showed Republican incumbent Ashley Moody tied with Democratic challenger Angie Nixon at roughly 45% each among likely voters. This outcome in a Republican-leaning state has drawn attention amid broader polling volatility. Several other contests also register as toss-ups or near-ties according to recent surveys and ratings from Cook Political Report and similar outlets, including Iowa, Texas, Michigan, the Ohio special, Nebraska, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Maine. These races feature narrow margins driven by candidate-specific dynamics, open seats, and a national environment reflected in Democratic-leaning generic ballot trends. Late-cycle shifts in turnout or additional polling could still alter relative positioning among these battlegrounds before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$45,082Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Florida’s special Senate election leads trader expectations for the closest 2026 race after a mid-September St. Pete Polls survey showed Republican incumbent Ashley Moody tied with Democratic challenger Angie Nixon at roughly 45% each among likely voters. This outcome in a Republican-leaning state has drawn attention amid broader polling volatility. Several other contests also register as toss-ups or near-ties according to recent surveys and ratings from Cook Political Report and similar outlets, including Iowa, Texas, Michigan, the Ohio special, Nebraska, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Maine. These races feature narrow margins driven by candidate-specific dynamics, open seats, and a national environment reflected in Democratic-leaning generic ballot trends. Late-cycle shifts in turnout or additional polling could still alter relative positioning among these battlegrounds before November.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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