**Michigan leads trader consensus at 51.5% as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity in the 2026 midterms because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state.** Gary Peters’ retirement created a vacancy in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024, and recent post-primary polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding slim leads over Republican Mike Rogers. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it a toss-up, reflecting competitive fundamentals and Democratic base turnout potential. Alaska follows at 24% on the strength of Mary Peltola’s primary performance against incumbent Dan Sullivan and her history of winning crossover support. Maine (16%), Ohio (13%), Iowa (13%), and Texas (11%) trail due to entrenched Republican incumbents or appointees, though Cook’s recent upgrades of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status and Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in Ohio keep them in play. National midterm headwinds for the president’s party and economic concerns have tightened several of these races in recent weeks, sustaining the close market ordering.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa meilleure course au Sénat de Dems ?
La meilleure course au Sénat de Dems ?
Michigan 52%
Alaska 24%
Maine 15%
Iowa 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Michigan
52%
Alaska
24%
Maine
15%
Iowa
8%
Ohio
6%
Texas
6%
Michigan 52%
Alaska 24%
Maine 15%
Iowa 8%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Michigan
$56 Vol.
52%
Alaska
$119 Vol.
24%
Maine
$39 Vol.
15%
Iowa
$39 Vol.
8%
Ohio
$57 Vol.
6%
Texas
$39 Vol.
6%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Michigan leads trader consensus at 51.5% as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity in the 2026 midterms because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state.** Gary Peters’ retirement created a vacancy in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024, and recent post-primary polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding slim leads over Republican Mike Rogers. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it a toss-up, reflecting competitive fundamentals and Democratic base turnout potential.
Alaska follows at 24% on the strength of Mary Peltola’s primary performance against incumbent Dan Sullivan and her history of winning crossover support. Maine (16%), Ohio (13%), Iowa (13%), and Texas (11%) trail due to entrenched Republican incumbents or appointees, though Cook’s recent upgrades of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status and Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in Ohio keep them in play. National midterm headwinds for the president’s party and economic concerns have tightened several of these races in recent weeks, sustaining the close market ordering.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volume
$349Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Michigan leads trader consensus at 51.5% as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity in the 2026 midterms because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state.** Gary Peters’ retirement created a vacancy in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024, and recent post-primary polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding slim leads over Republican Mike Rogers. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it a toss-up, reflecting competitive fundamentals and Democratic base turnout potential.
Alaska follows at 24% on the strength of Mary Peltola’s primary performance against incumbent Dan Sullivan and her history of winning crossover support. Maine (16%), Ohio (13%), Iowa (13%), and Texas (11%) trail due to entrenched Republican incumbents or appointees, though Cook’s recent upgrades of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status and Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in Ohio keep them in play. National midterm headwinds for the president’s party and economic concerns have tightened several of these races in recent weeks, sustaining the close market ordering.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$349Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...**Michigan leads trader consensus at 51.5% as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity in the 2026 midterms because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state.** Gary Peters’ retirement created a vacancy in a state Trump carried narrowly in 2024, and recent post-primary polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding slim leads over Republican Mike Rogers. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it a toss-up, reflecting competitive fundamentals and Democratic base turnout potential. Alaska follows at 24% on the strength of Mary Peltola’s primary performance against incumbent Dan Sullivan and her history of winning crossover support. Maine (16%), Ohio (13%), Iowa (13%), and Texas (11%) trail due to entrenched Republican incumbents or appointees, though Cook’s recent upgrades of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status and Sherrod Brown’s name recognition in Ohio keep them in play. National midterm headwinds for the president’s party and economic concerns have tightened several of these races in recent weeks, sustaining the close market ordering.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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