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icon for Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ?

Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ?

icon for Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ?

Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ?

$64,033 Vol.

3 nov. 2026
Polymarket

$64,033 Vol.

Polymarket

Texas

$7,132 Vol.

83%

Alaska

$2,789 Vol.

72%

Kansas

$556 Vol.

70%

Michigan

$2,743 Vol.

65%

Iowa

$5,657 Vol.

62%

Ohio (spéciale)

$3,967 Vol.

56%

Nebraska

$3,719 Vol.

45%

Maine

$1,119 Vol.

39%

New Hampshire

$2,402 Vol.

36%

South Carolina

$109 Vol.

41%

Caroline du Nord

$5,817 Vol.

27%

Floride (spéciale)

$2,450 Vol.

25%

Géorgie

$2,057 Vol.

20%

Minnesota

$9,915 Vol.

16%

Nouveau-Mexique

$6,665 Vol.

13%

Montana

$2,990 Vol.

9%

Virginie

$1,344 Vol.

5%

Colorado

$2,599 Vol.

4%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests tightening into potential single-digit margins, driven by a Democratic-leaning generic congressional ballot and shifts in key battlegrounds. Races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Iowa feature the narrowest projected spreads, influenced by candidate matchups, open seats from retirements, and state-specific turnout patterns. Democratic gains appear in recent surveys from Texas and Ohio, while New Hampshire moved to toss-up status amid Republican momentum. With the November 3 general election seven weeks away and mail voting underway in multiple states, late-cycle developments in these competitive districts—along with national economic and approval trends—will likely determine which races finish within five points.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$64,033
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows several 2026 Senate contests tightening into potential single-digit margins, driven by a Democratic-leaning generic congressional ballot and shifts in key battlegrounds. Races in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Alaska, and Iowa feature the narrowest projected spreads, influenced by candidate matchups, open seats from retirements, and state-specific turnout patterns. Democratic gains appear in recent surveys from Texas and Ohio, while New Hampshire moved to toss-up status amid Republican momentum. With the November 3 general election seven weeks away and mail voting underway in multiple states, late-cycle developments in these competitive districts—along with national economic and approval trends—will likely determine which races finish within five points.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$64,033
Date de fin
3 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET

Résolveur

0x65070BE91...

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Questions fréquentes

« Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 18 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Texas » à 83%, suivi de « Alaska » à 72%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 83¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 83% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ? » a généré $64K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 29, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ? », parcourez les 18 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ? » est « Texas » à 83%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 83% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Alaska » à 72%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quelles courses au Sénat seront à moins de 5 % ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.