**Mitch McConnell’s ongoing recovery from a June 2026 fall and subsequent pneumonia has kept the 84-year-old Kentucky Republican out of the Senate chamber since mid-June, with no confirmed return date as of late August.** He was discharged from rehabilitation on August 6 and shifted to intensive physical therapy at home during the August recess, but his office has provided no new medical updates or clearance statements since then. Senate rules require in-person presence for roll-call votes, and McConnell’s childhood polio continues to affect his mobility. With the chamber scheduled to reconvene around mid-September and only a narrow window before the September 30 deadline, traders see limited opportunity for him to cast a vote. His planned retirement in January 2027 and the lack of recent public appearances further support the current “No” pricing at 66.5%.