Trader consensus on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time hinges on the razor-thin margin between no prison time (35.6%) and 20-30 years (30.5%), fueled by the April 21 opening statements in his third New York rape retrial, where defense highlighted text messages suggesting consent while prosecutors portrayed predatory Hollywood power dynamics. His 16-year California rape conviction stands as a baseline, but a skeptical appellate panel's recent hearing signals hurdles to overturning it, keeping mid-range sentences viable. Key differentiators include jury deliberations in the ongoing Manhattan trial—potentially leading to acquittal—and the California appeal ruling, amid Weinstein's health pleas and six years already served at Rikers Island. #MeToo reckonings underscore high unpredictability as verdicts loom.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourUne peine de prison pour Harvey Weinstein ?
Une peine de prison pour Harvey Weinstein ?
Aucune peine de prison 35.6%
20-30 ans 30.5%
10-20 ans 13.2%
Plus de 30 ans 8.8%
$876,184 Vol.
$876,184 Vol.
31 déc. 2025
Aucune peine de prison
36%
<5 ans
3%
5-10 ans
4%
10-20 ans
13%
20-30 ans
31%
Plus de 30 ans
9%
Aucune peine de prison 35.6%
20-30 ans 30.5%
10-20 ans 13.2%
Plus de 30 ans 8.8%
$876,184 Vol.
$876,184 Vol.
31 déc. 2025
Aucune peine de prison
$322,723 Vol.
36%
<5 ans
$107,977 Vol.
3%
5-10 ans
$61,511 Vol.
4%
10-20 ans
$142,988 Vol.
13%
20-30 ans
$182,293 Vol.
31%
Plus de 30 ans
$58,692 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time hinges on the razor-thin margin between no prison time (35.6%) and 20-30 years (30.5%), fueled by the April 21 opening statements in his third New York rape retrial, where defense highlighted text messages suggesting consent while prosecutors portrayed predatory Hollywood power dynamics. His 16-year California rape conviction stands as a baseline, but a skeptical appellate panel's recent hearing signals hurdles to overturning it, keeping mid-range sentences viable. Key differentiators include jury deliberations in the ongoing Manhattan trial—potentially leading to acquittal—and the California appeal ruling, amid Weinstein's health pleas and six years already served at Rikers Island. #MeToo reckonings underscore high unpredictability as verdicts loom.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$876,184Date de fin
31 déc. 2025Marché ouvert
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time hinges on the razor-thin margin between no prison time (35.6%) and 20-30 years (30.5%), fueled by the April 21 opening statements in his third New York rape retrial, where defense highlighted text messages suggesting consent while prosecutors portrayed predatory Hollywood power dynamics. His 16-year California rape conviction stands as a baseline, but a skeptical appellate panel's recent hearing signals hurdles to overturning it, keeping mid-range sentences viable. Key differentiators include jury deliberations in the ongoing Manhattan trial—potentially leading to acquittal—and the California appeal ruling, amid Weinstein's health pleas and six years already served at Rikers Island. #MeToo reckonings underscore high unpredictability as verdicts loom.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$876,184Date de fin
31 déc. 2025Marché ouvert
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Harvey Weinstein's ultimate prison time hinges on the razor-thin margin between no prison time (35.6%) and 20-30 years (30.5%), fueled by the April 21 opening statements in his third New York rape retrial, where defense highlighted text messages suggesting consent while prosecutors portrayed predatory Hollywood power dynamics. His 16-year California rape conviction stands as a baseline, but a skeptical appellate panel's recent hearing signals hurdles to overturning it, keeping mid-range sentences viable. Key differentiators include jury deliberations in the ongoing Manhattan trial—potentially leading to acquittal—and the California appeal ruling, amid Weinstein's health pleas and six years already served at Rikers Island. #MeToo reckonings underscore high unpredictability as verdicts loom.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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