Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara will remain under a broad high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northeasterly flow through July 3, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33 °C. This stable pattern, typical for early July when climatological highs average 32 °C, explains why the 31 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C outcomes dominate trader consensus at combined implied odds exceeding 78 %. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation accounts for the close probabilities among those bins, while probabilities drop sharply above 35 °C due to the absence of any warm-advection signal in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Ankara le 3 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Ankara le 3 juillet ?
31°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$88,268 Vol.
$88,268 Vol.
3 juil. 2026
28°C or below
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
28°C or below <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$88,268 Vol.
$88,268 Vol.
3 juil. 2026
28°C or below
$3,267 Vol.
No
29°C
$12,230 Vol.
No
30°C
$8,439 Vol.
No
31°C
$11,923 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$21,043 Vol.
No
33°C
$10,395 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,523 Vol.
No
35°C
$9,586 Vol.
No
36°C
$3,500 Vol.
No
37°C
$1,288 Vol.
No
38°C or higher
$2,073 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara will remain under a broad high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northeasterly flow through July 3, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33 °C. This stable pattern, typical for early July when climatological highs average 32 °C, explains why the 31 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C outcomes dominate trader consensus at combined implied odds exceeding 78 %. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation accounts for the close probabilities among those bins, while probabilities drop sharply above 35 °C due to the absence of any warm-advection signal in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$88,268Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara will remain under a broad high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northeasterly flow through July 3, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33 °C. This stable pattern, typical for early July when climatological highs average 32 °C, explains why the 31 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C outcomes dominate trader consensus at combined implied odds exceeding 78 %. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation accounts for the close probabilities among those bins, while probabilities drop sharply above 35 °C due to the absence of any warm-advection signal in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$88,268Date de fin
3 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS indicate Ankara will remain under a broad high-pressure ridge with clear skies and light northeasterly flow through July 3, supporting daytime maxima near 31–33 °C. This stable pattern, typical for early July when climatological highs average 32 °C, explains why the 31 °C, 32 °C, and 34 °C outcomes dominate trader consensus at combined implied odds exceeding 78 %. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and insolation accounts for the close probabilities among those bins, while probabilities drop sharply above 35 °C due to the absence of any warm-advection signal in current guidance. Updated model runs and official Turkish State Meteorological Service briefings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the range ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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