Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Austin le 15 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Austin le 15 juillet ?
80-81°F 100.0%
75°F ou moins <1%
76-77 °F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$71,356 Vol.
$71,356 Vol.
15 juil. 2026
75°F ou moins
Non
76-77 °F
Non
78-79°F
Non
80-81°F
Oui
82-83 °F
Non
84-85 °F
Non
86-87 °F
Non
88-89 °F
Non
90-91°F
Non
92-93°F
Non
94°F ou plus
Non
80-81°F 100.0%
75°F ou moins <1%
76-77 °F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$71,356 Vol.
$71,356 Vol.
15 juil. 2026
75°F ou moins
$3,450 Vol.
Non
76-77 °F
$27,314 Vol.
Non
78-79°F
$5,026 Vol.
Non
80-81°F
$7,952 Vol.
Oui
82-83 °F
$5,684 Vol.
Non
84-85 °F
$5,368 Vol.
Non
86-87 °F
$3,881 Vol.
Non
88-89 °F
$5,160 Vol.
Non
90-91°F
$3,296 Vol.
Non
92-93°F
$2,320 Vol.
Non
94°F ou plus
$1,905 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
Volume
$71,356Date de fin
15 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$71,356Date de fin
15 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 13, 2026, 10:03 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs highlight increased cloud cover and scattered showers tied to a weak Gulf disturbance and subtle frontal boundary, which are limiting daytime solar heating and keeping the Austin high in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions contrast with typical mid-July ridging that produces 90–95°F highs, explaining why traders have concentrated nearly two-thirds of implied probability in the 78–81°F bands. Key variables include boundary timing and moisture depth, which could shift the peak by a few degrees; the next NWS update and afternoon observations will provide the clearest resolution signals before markets close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes