Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée au Cap le 5 juillet ?
Température la plus élevée au Cap le 5 juillet ?
18°C 100.0%
13°C ou moins <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$53,447 Vol.
$53,447 Vol.
5 juil. 2026
13°C ou moins
Non
14°C
Non
15°C
Non
16°C
Non
17°C
Non
18°C
Oui
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C
Non
22°C
Non
23°C ou plus
Non
18°C 100.0%
13°C ou moins <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$53,447 Vol.
$53,447 Vol.
5 juil. 2026
13°C ou moins
$2,358 Vol.
Non
14°C
$2,509 Vol.
Non
15°C
$2,994 Vol.
Non
16°C
$3,535 Vol.
Non
17°C
$4,973 Vol.
Non
18°C
$15,332 Vol.
Oui
19°C
$10,371 Vol.
Non
20°C
$3,513 Vol.
Non
21°C
$3,485 Vol.
Non
22°C
$1,134 Vol.
Non
23°C ou plus
$3,243 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$53,447Date de fin
5 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$53,447Date de fin
5 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Recent model consensus from global and regional forecasts points to a highest temperature near 18–19°C in Cape Town on July 5, driving the combined 55% market-implied probability on those outcomes amid typical winter variability. South African Weather Service guidance and ensemble runs highlight a transitional synoptic pattern, with the South Atlantic High providing moderate onshore flow while a weak cold front approaches from the southwest, limiting daytime warming under partly cloudy skies and fresh northwesterly winds. Historical July maxima average 17°C with a standard deviation of roughly 3°C, so the spread across 17–21°C bins reflects uncertainty in exact frontal timing, cloud cover, and localized orographic effects around Table Mountain. Short-range updates from NOAA and ECMWF over the next 48 hours, plus any revisions to sea-surface temperature influences, will likely tighten probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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