Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Istanbul on April 26?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 26?
22°C or higher 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$48,219 Vol.
$48,219 Vol.
26 avr. 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
Yes
22°C or higher 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$48,219 Vol.
$48,219 Vol.
26 avr. 2026
12°C or below
$1,698 Vol.
No
13°C
$1,470 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,851 Vol.
No
15°C
$1,712 Vol.
No
16°C
$2,887 Vol.
No
17°C
$2,331 Vol.
No
18°C
$6,087 Vol.
No
19°C
$8,368 Vol.
No
20°C
$7,017 Vol.
No
21°C
$5,656 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$9,142 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$48,219Date de fin
26 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$48,219Date de fin
26 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 24, 2026, 12:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a highest temperature of 22°C or higher in Istanbul today, with 100% implied probability, driven by convergent forecasts from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) projecting up to 20-24°C peaks under clear skies and southerly winds, bolstered by AccuWeather's 24°C outlook and UK Met Office guidance near 22°C. Morning observations around 15°C at Istanbul Airport, combined with strong solar heating from high pressure and minimal cloud cover, position midday highs comfortably above the threshold, exceeding April climatological averages of 15-16°C. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen marine layer intrusion or abrupt northerly wind shift inducing adiabatic cooling, though current model ensembles show low likelihood before evening resolution via NOAA airport data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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