Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Lagos's highest temperature on April 18, with models like GFS and ECMWF clustering implied probabilities around 32–34°C amid variable cloud cover and convective potential. Recent NiMet bulletins and commercial forecasts (e.g., 32–33°C highs from Weather.com and BBC) show partly cloudy skies with 30–40% shower risks, potentially capping peaks below climatological April averages of 32°C via increased humidity and sea breeze moderation. Earlier-month heat (35.5°C max on April 10) lingers, but approaching ITCZ activity introduces divergence—clearer skies favor 34–35°C, while thunderstorms suppress to 31–32°C. Watch NiMet's daily update tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Lagos on April 18?
Highest temperature in Lagos on April 18?
33°C 22%
34°C 20%
32°C 19%
31°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
27°C or below
9%
28°C
1%
29°C
6%
30°C
15%
31°C
18%
32°C
19%
33°C
22%
34°C
20%
35°C
16%
36°C
9%
37°C or higher
2%
33°C 22%
34°C 20%
32°C 19%
31°C 18%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
27°C or below
$2,087 Vol.
9%
28°C
$83 Vol.
1%
29°C
$46 Vol.
6%
30°C
$0 Vol.
15%
31°C
$0 Vol.
18%
32°C
$0 Vol.
19%
33°C
$0 Vol.
22%
34°C
$0 Vol.
20%
35°C
$0 Vol.
16%
36°C
$0 Vol.
9%
37°C or higher
$42 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Lagos's highest temperature on April 18, with models like GFS and ECMWF clustering implied probabilities around 32–34°C amid variable cloud cover and convective potential. Recent NiMet bulletins and commercial forecasts (e.g., 32–33°C highs from Weather.com and BBC) show partly cloudy skies with 30–40% shower risks, potentially capping peaks below climatological April averages of 32°C via increased humidity and sea breeze moderation. Earlier-month heat (35.5°C max on April 10) lingers, but approaching ITCZ activity introduces divergence—clearer skies favor 34–35°C, while thunderstorms suppress to 31–32°C. Watch NiMet's daily update tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 2:03 AM ET
Volume
$2,258Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 2:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Lagos's highest temperature on April 18, with models like GFS and ECMWF clustering implied probabilities around 32–34°C amid variable cloud cover and convective potential. Recent NiMet bulletins and commercial forecasts (e.g., 32–33°C highs from Weather.com and BBC) show partly cloudy skies with 30–40% shower risks, potentially capping peaks below climatological April averages of 32°C via increased humidity and sea breeze moderation. Earlier-month heat (35.5°C max on April 10) lingers, but approaching ITCZ activity introduces divergence—clearer skies favor 34–35°C, while thunderstorms suppress to 31–32°C. Watch NiMet's daily update tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,258Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 2:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast uncertainty for Lagos's highest temperature on April 18, with models like GFS and ECMWF clustering implied probabilities around 32–34°C amid variable cloud cover and convective potential. Recent NiMet bulletins and commercial forecasts (e.g., 32–33°C highs from Weather.com and BBC) show partly cloudy skies with 30–40% shower risks, potentially capping peaks below climatological April averages of 32°C via increased humidity and sea breeze moderation. Earlier-month heat (35.5°C max on April 10) lingers, but approaching ITCZ activity introduces divergence—clearer skies favor 34–35°C, while thunderstorms suppress to 31–32°C. Watch NiMet's daily update tomorrow for refined guidance ahead of resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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