**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C. Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Lucknow le 26 juin ?
La température la plus élevée à Lucknow le 26 juin ?
41°C 100.0%
37°C ou moins <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$102,457 Vol.
$102,457 Vol.
26 juin 2026
37°C ou moins
Non
38°C
Non
39°C
Non
40°C
Non
41°C
Oui
42°C
Non
43°C
Non
44°C
Non
45°C
Non
46°C
Non
47°C ou plus
Non
41°C 100.0%
37°C ou moins <1%
38°C <1%
39°C <1%
$102,457 Vol.
$102,457 Vol.
26 juin 2026
37°C ou moins
$4,105 Vol.
Non
38°C
$3,816 Vol.
Non
39°C
$15,889 Vol.
Non
40°C
$17,475 Vol.
Non
41°C
$22,133 Vol.
Oui
42°C
$11,080 Vol.
Non
43°C
$3,568 Vol.
Non
44°C
$1,879 Vol.
Non
45°C
$2,670 Vol.
Non
46°C
$6,476 Vol.
Non
47°C ou plus
$13,366 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C.
Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$102,457Date de fin
26 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C.
Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$102,457Date de fin
26 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 24, 2026, 1:03 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
**Official IMD forecasts position 41°C as the most probable peak for Lucknow on June 26, with nearby values also competitive due to typical model spread.** The India Meteorological Department’s June 24 bulletin projects a maximum of 41°C under mainly clear skies and no heat-wave warning, following realized maxima of 40.9°C on June 23 and forecasts of 42°C on June 24–25. Persistent pre-monsoon conditions—dry northwesterly flow, low humidity, and strong daytime insolation—support these readings, while the absence of monsoon moisture or cloud cover keeps temperatures near seasonal norms of ~40°C. Trader positioning aligns closely with these authoritative updates: the 41°C and 42°C brackets together exceed 70% implied probability, reflecting the narrow forecast envelope and limited upside risk from a strengthening heat dome or delayed monsoon onset. Minor model differences across GFS/ECMWF runs and the possibility of a 1°C measurement variance at the official station explain the secondary weight on 40°C and 43°C. No major shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, keeping the market anchored to the current IMD consensus ahead of final 26 June observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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