Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F at New York City's Central Park observatory (KNYC) on April 24, 2026, backed by official National Weather Service observations confirming this peak amid partly cloudy skies and northeast winds of 5-10 mph. This aligns with NOAA forecast model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) projecting mid-60s highs following the breakdown of a mid-April record heat wave (90°F+ on the 15th), as cool air advection dominated under high pressure influence. Historical April 24 normals hover around 61°F, with urban park microclimate readings typically 1-2°F cooler than airports. Realistic challenges are slim—only a rare post-preliminary quality control revision or sensor recalibration could shift the certified data upward, pending the final monthly climatological report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in NYC on April 24?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 24?
64-65°F 100.0%
62-63°F <1%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
$242,819 Vol.
$242,819 Vol.
24 avr. 2026
47°F or below
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
Yes
66°F or higher
No
64-65°F 100.0%
62-63°F <1%
47°F or below <1%
48-49°F <1%
$242,819 Vol.
$242,819 Vol.
24 avr. 2026
47°F or below
$5,130 Vol.
No
48-49°F
$2,969 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$4,735 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$7,747 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$5,544 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$7,171 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$13,691 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$22,393 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$77,517 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$42,218 Vol.
Yes
66°F or higher
$53,705 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F at New York City's Central Park observatory (KNYC) on April 24, 2026, backed by official National Weather Service observations confirming this peak amid partly cloudy skies and northeast winds of 5-10 mph. This aligns with NOAA forecast model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) projecting mid-60s highs following the breakdown of a mid-April record heat wave (90°F+ on the 15th), as cool air advection dominated under high pressure influence. Historical April 24 normals hover around 61°F, with urban park microclimate readings typically 1-2°F cooler than airports. Realistic challenges are slim—only a rare post-preliminary quality control revision or sensor recalibration could shift the certified data upward, pending the final monthly climatological report.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 22, 2026, 12:33 AM ET
Volume
$242,819Date de fin
24 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 22, 2026, 12:33 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F at New York City's Central Park observatory (KNYC) on April 24, 2026, backed by official National Weather Service observations confirming this peak amid partly cloudy skies and northeast winds of 5-10 mph. This aligns with NOAA forecast model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) projecting mid-60s highs following the breakdown of a mid-April record heat wave (90°F+ on the 15th), as cool air advection dominated under high pressure influence. Historical April 24 normals hover around 61°F, with urban park microclimate readings typically 1-2°F cooler than airports. Realistic challenges are slim—only a rare post-preliminary quality control revision or sensor recalibration could shift the certified data upward, pending the final monthly climatological report.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$242,819Date de fin
24 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 22, 2026, 12:33 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 64-65°F at New York City's Central Park observatory (KNYC) on April 24, 2026, backed by official National Weather Service observations confirming this peak amid partly cloudy skies and northeast winds of 5-10 mph. This aligns with NOAA forecast model consensus (GFS, ECMWF) projecting mid-60s highs following the breakdown of a mid-April record heat wave (90°F+ on the 15th), as cool air advection dominated under high pressure influence. Historical April 24 normals hover around 61°F, with urban park microclimate readings typically 1-2°F cooler than airports. Realistic challenges are slim—only a rare post-preliminary quality control revision or sensor recalibration could shift the certified data upward, pending the final monthly climatological report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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