Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts around 20-22°C, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration projections under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds capping daytime heating. Current observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the market's resolution source—show midday peaks near 20°C amid overcast skies, aligning with April climatological norms where average highs hover around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 22°C before sunset, though model agreement and late-day cooling trends make this improbable; final official readings expected post-midnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Shanghai on April 19?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on April 19?
21°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$278,880 Vol.
$278,880 Vol.
19 avr. 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
Yes
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
21°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$278,880 Vol.
$278,880 Vol.
19 avr. 2026
17°C or below
$9,748 Vol.
No
18°C
$8,138 Vol.
No
19°C
$12,979 Vol.
No
20°C
$23,788 Vol.
No
21°C
$54,538 Vol.
Yes
22°C
$43,358 Vol.
No
23°C
$46,720 Vol.
No
24°C
$26,818 Vol.
No
25°C
$32,836 Vol.
No
26°C
$9,909 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$10,049 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts around 20-22°C, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration projections under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds capping daytime heating. Current observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the market's resolution source—show midday peaks near 20°C amid overcast skies, aligning with April climatological norms where average highs hover around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 22°C before sunset, though model agreement and late-day cooling trends make this improbable; final official readings expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$278,880Date de fin
19 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts around 20-22°C, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration projections under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds capping daytime heating. Current observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the market's resolution source—show midday peaks near 20°C amid overcast skies, aligning with April climatological norms where average highs hover around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 22°C before sunset, though model agreement and late-day cooling trends make this improbable; final official readings expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$278,880Date de fin
19 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 21°C high temperature in Shanghai today, reflecting tight clustering in the latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts around 20-22°C, corroborated by China Meteorological Administration projections under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds capping daytime heating. Current observations from the Xujiahui observatory—the market's resolution source—show midday peaks near 20°C amid overcast skies, aligning with April climatological norms where average highs hover around 19°C. Realistic challenges include unexpected clearing allowing brief solar insolation to nudge readings to 22°C before sunset, though model agreement and late-day cooling trends make this improbable; final official readings expected post-midnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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