Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 19 juillet ?
La température la plus élevée à Tokyo le 19 juillet ?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,290 Vol.
$58,290 Vol.
19 juil. 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$58,290 Vol.
$58,290 Vol.
19 juil. 2026
26°C or below
$467 Vol.
No
27°C
$250 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,019 Vol.
No
29°C
$12,130 Vol.
No
30°C
$5,617 Vol.
No
31°C
$6,222 Vol.
No
32°C
$7,196 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$7,828 Vol.
No
34°C
$8,203 Vol.
No
35°C
$2,841 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$516 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$58,290Date de fin
19 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$58,290Date de fin
19 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Recent Japan Meteorological Agency short-range forecasts and ensemble model runs for July 19 point to a Tokyo maximum near 31–32°C under the influence of an extended Pacific subtropical high, explaining the near-tie between those two outcomes at roughly 32% and 31.5% implied probability. Persistent high pressure favors clear to partly cloudy conditions and subsidence warming, yet modest differences in afternoon cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or urban heat-island intensity—amplified by Tokyo’s dense built environment—can shift the peak by 1°C. Seasonal outlooks note above-normal baseline temperatures from global warming and a northward-shifted westerly jet, but short-term variability in moisture and localized convection keeps lower (30°C) and higher (33°C+) outcomes viable until updated guidance narrows the range.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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