Recent model consensus from the Met Office, BBC, and GFS runs points to a daytime maximum near 22°C in Warsaw on August 17, driven by a post-heatwave shift to westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air under increasing cloud cover and possible light showers. This setup explains the market's tight leading outcomes at 22°C (32.5%) and 23°C (26%), which largely reflect ensemble spread in boundary-layer mixing, insolation, and exact frontal timing rather than major synoptic divergence. Historical August maxima average 23–24°C, so the current pattern represents a modest cool anomaly following earlier southerly advection that produced 29–30°C peaks on prior days. Updated short-range guidance and afternoon observations will refine the precise threshold before resolution.