**Current forecast models and Wellington’s winter climatology position 13°C as the most likely daily maximum on July 13.** Long-term MetService records show July highs clustering between 11–14°C, with a mean near 12°C; the market’s heavy weighting on 13°C (46.5%) and 14°C (29.5%) reflects this central tendency plus recent model runs indicating mild northerly flow ahead of an approaching front. NIWA’s May–July outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the region, keeping lower outcomes (12°C at 18%) viable if stronger southerlies develop. Cook Strait’s maritime influence and rapid wind shifts add variability, but no major anomalies appear in the latest guidance, so trader consensus remains anchored around the historical peak range with modest upside for 14°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Wellington le 13 juillet ?
Température la plus élevée à Wellington le 13 juillet ?
13°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$70,530 Vol.
$70,530 Vol.
13 juil. 2026
7°C or below
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
Yes
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C or higher
No
13°C 100.0%
7°C or below <1%
8°C <1%
9°C <1%
$70,530 Vol.
$70,530 Vol.
13 juil. 2026
7°C or below
$381 Vol.
No
8°C
$511 Vol.
No
9°C
$573 Vol.
No
10°C
$1,822 Vol.
No
11°C
$3,648 Vol.
No
12°C
$20,745 Vol.
No
13°C
$15,370 Vol.
Yes
14°C
$15,882 Vol.
No
15°C
$6,720 Vol.
No
16°C
$4,227 Vol.
No
17°C or higher
$650 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models and Wellington’s winter climatology position 13°C as the most likely daily maximum on July 13.** Long-term MetService records show July highs clustering between 11–14°C, with a mean near 12°C; the market’s heavy weighting on 13°C (46.5%) and 14°C (29.5%) reflects this central tendency plus recent model runs indicating mild northerly flow ahead of an approaching front. NIWA’s May–July outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the region, keeping lower outcomes (12°C at 18%) viable if stronger southerlies develop. Cook Strait’s maritime influence and rapid wind shifts add variability, but no major anomalies appear in the latest guidance, so trader consensus remains anchored around the historical peak range with modest upside for 14°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$70,530Date de fin
13 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecast models and Wellington’s winter climatology position 13°C as the most likely daily maximum on July 13.** Long-term MetService records show July highs clustering between 11–14°C, with a mean near 12°C; the market’s heavy weighting on 13°C (46.5%) and 14°C (29.5%) reflects this central tendency plus recent model runs indicating mild northerly flow ahead of an approaching front. NIWA’s May–July outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the region, keeping lower outcomes (12°C at 18%) viable if stronger southerlies develop. Cook Strait’s maritime influence and rapid wind shifts add variability, but no major anomalies appear in the latest guidance, so trader consensus remains anchored around the historical peak range with modest upside for 14°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$70,530Date de fin
13 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
**Current forecast models and Wellington’s winter climatology position 13°C as the most likely daily maximum on July 13.** Long-term MetService records show July highs clustering between 11–14°C, with a mean near 12°C; the market’s heavy weighting on 13°C (46.5%) and 14°C (29.5%) reflects this central tendency plus recent model runs indicating mild northerly flow ahead of an approaching front. NIWA’s May–July outlook assigns roughly equal chances to near-average or below-average temperatures across the region, keeping lower outcomes (12°C at 18%) viable if stronger southerlies develop. Cook Strait’s maritime influence and rapid wind shifts add variability, but no major anomalies appear in the latest guidance, so trader consensus remains anchored around the historical peak range with modest upside for 14°C.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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