Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wellington on May 5?
Highest temperature in Wellington on May 5?
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$67,272 Vol.
$67,272 Vol.
5 mai 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$67,272 Vol.
$67,272 Vol.
5 mai 2026
10°C or below
$2,514 Vol.
No
11°C
$570 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,178 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,499 Vol.
No
14°C
$11,780 Vol.
No
15°C
$18,526 Vol.
No
16°C
$12,393 Vol.
Yes
17°C
$6,427 Vol.
No
18°C
$5,447 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,065 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$2,873 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volume
$67,272Date de fin
5 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$67,272Date de fin
5 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 3, 2026, 12:07 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for a 16°C high temperature in Wellington on May 5, backed by MetService observations at Wellington International Airport showing midday peaks plateauing at 15–16°C under partly cloudy skies and persistent northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h. This aligns with the agency's latest forecast of a 15°C daytime maximum amid a high-pressure ridge, consistent with May climatological averages around 15°C for the region. Current late-afternoon readings at 13°C signal the peak has passed with sunset approaching at 5:23pm, minimizing upside risk; only an improbable prolonged clear spell with sudden solar heating could push toward 17°C, though model consensus and cooling trends make this unlikely. Final airport data expected by midnight will resolve the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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