The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, initiated on April 8 after Pakistan-mediated talks during the 2026 Iran war, remains the central driver of trader assessments on its continuation. Initial two-week terms have been extended multiple times by President Trump amid stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear enrichment limits and ballistic missile capabilities, with recent US strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz prompting Iranian accusations of violations and counter-threats. Diplomatic exchanges continue without a comprehensive agreement, while a US naval blockade and intermittent maritime incidents underscore persistent tensions. Upcoming developments include potential further proposal reviews and responses from Iranian negotiators, alongside possible Gulf state pressure for de-escalation, all of which could shift the balance toward either extension or renewed hostilities depending on whether core issues reach resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
$1,539,664 Vol.
20 mai
100%
21 mai
98%
22 mai
95%
24 mai
87%
27 mai
78%
31 mai
70%
7 juin
64%
15 juin
56%
30 juin
49%
31 juillet
40%
31 décembre
36%
$1,539,664 Vol.
20 mai
$299,411 Vol.
100%
21 mai
$510,710 Vol.
98%
22 mai
$249,485 Vol.
95%
24 mai
$226,687 Vol.
87%
27 mai
$56,604 Vol.
78%
31 mai
$89,301 Vol.
70%
7 juin
$22,075 Vol.
64%
15 juin
$18,935 Vol.
56%
30 juin
$27,824 Vol.
49%
31 juillet
$12,236 Vol.
40%
31 décembre
$40,356 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, initiated on April 8 after Pakistan-mediated talks during the 2026 Iran war, remains the central driver of trader assessments on its continuation. Initial two-week terms have been extended multiple times by President Trump amid stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear enrichment limits and ballistic missile capabilities, with recent US strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz prompting Iranian accusations of violations and counter-threats. Diplomatic exchanges continue without a comprehensive agreement, while a US naval blockade and intermittent maritime incidents underscore persistent tensions. Upcoming developments include potential further proposal reviews and responses from Iranian negotiators, alongside possible Gulf state pressure for de-escalation, all of which could shift the balance toward either extension or renewed hostilities depending on whether core issues reach resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,539,664Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, initiated on April 8 after Pakistan-mediated talks during the 2026 Iran war, remains the central driver of trader assessments on its continuation. Initial two-week terms have been extended multiple times by President Trump amid stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear enrichment limits and ballistic missile capabilities, with recent US strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz prompting Iranian accusations of violations and counter-threats. Diplomatic exchanges continue without a comprehensive agreement, while a US naval blockade and intermittent maritime incidents underscore persistent tensions. Upcoming developments include potential further proposal reviews and responses from Iranian negotiators, alongside possible Gulf state pressure for de-escalation, all of which could shift the balance toward either extension or renewed hostilities depending on whether core issues reach resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,539,664Marché ouvert
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, initiated on April 8 after Pakistan-mediated talks during the 2026 Iran war, remains the central driver of trader assessments on its continuation. Initial two-week terms have been extended multiple times by President Trump amid stalled negotiations over Iran's nuclear enrichment limits and ballistic missile capabilities, with recent US strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz prompting Iranian accusations of violations and counter-threats. Diplomatic exchanges continue without a comprehensive agreement, while a US naval blockade and intermittent maritime incidents underscore persistent tensions. Upcoming developments include potential further proposal reviews and responses from Iranian negotiators, alongside possible Gulf state pressure for de-escalation, all of which could shift the balance toward either extension or renewed hostilities depending on whether core issues reach resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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