Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Tokyo le 10 mai ?
La température la plus basse à Tokyo le 10 mai ?
16°C 100.0%
11°C ou moins <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$49,246 Vol.
$49,246 Vol.
10 mai 2026
11°C ou moins
Non
12°C
Non
13°C
Non
14°C
Non
15°C
Non
16°C
Oui
17°C
Non
18°C
Non
19°C
Non
20°C
Non
21°C ou plus
Non
16°C 100.0%
11°C ou moins <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$49,246 Vol.
$49,246 Vol.
10 mai 2026
11°C ou moins
$11,598 Vol.
Non
12°C
$2,315 Vol.
Non
13°C
$2,085 Vol.
Non
14°C
$1,751 Vol.
Non
15°C
$2,923 Vol.
Non
16°C
$6,436 Vol.
Oui
17°C
$18,554 Vol.
Non
18°C
$673 Vol.
Non
19°C
$1,076 Vol.
Non
20°C
$876 Vol.
Non
21°C ou plus
$959 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$49,246Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$49,246Date de fin
10 mai 2026Marché ouvert
May 8, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 10 reaching exactly 16°C, backed by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations from the Tokyo (Haneda) AMEDAS station recording this minimum in the early morning hours amid partly cloudy skies and light winds. Urban heat island effects in central Tokyo, combined with insufficient radiational cooling overnight, stabilized temperatures above climatological norms of 14–16°C for mid-May, as confirmed by converging ECMWF and GFS model ensembles. While final daily data awaits official tabulation from Wunderground's RJTT records, a realistic challenge would require anomalous clear skies and calm conditions post-sunset to drive sharper cooling below 16°C—scenarios deemed improbable by current guidance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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