**Minnesota's 4th Congressional District** remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in the Saint Paul area of the Twin Cities metro, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18. Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum, who has represented the district since 2001 and won reelection in 2024 with roughly 67% of the vote, faces only a minor primary challenge from Aswar Rahman ahead of the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan voting patterns and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising in the district. McCollum's recent activity as Ranking Member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense has kept her visible on national security and appropriations issues without generating district-level controversy. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of any competitive Republican candidate or polling movement. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting McCollum, a highly unusual primary upset, or an extraordinary national political shift capable of overcoming the district's entrenched partisan lean.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
7%
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$3,370 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$8,000 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Minnesota's 4th Congressional District** remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in the Saint Paul area of the Twin Cities metro, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18. Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum, who has represented the district since 2001 and won reelection in 2024 with roughly 67% of the vote, faces only a minor primary challenge from Aswar Rahman ahead of the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan voting patterns and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising in the district.
McCollum's recent activity as Ranking Member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense has kept her visible on national security and appropriations issues without generating district-level controversy. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of any competitive Republican candidate or polling movement.
Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting McCollum, a highly unusual primary upset, or an extraordinary national political shift capable of overcoming the district's entrenched partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$11,370Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Minnesota's 4th Congressional District** remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in the Saint Paul area of the Twin Cities metro, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18. Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum, who has represented the district since 2001 and won reelection in 2024 with roughly 67% of the vote, faces only a minor primary challenge from Aswar Rahman ahead of the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan voting patterns and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising in the district.
McCollum's recent activity as Ranking Member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense has kept her visible on national security and appropriations issues without generating district-level controversy. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of any competitive Republican candidate or polling movement.
Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting McCollum, a highly unusual primary upset, or an extraordinary national political shift capable of overcoming the district's entrenched partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,370Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Minnesota's 4th Congressional District** remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored in the Saint Paul area of the Twin Cities metro, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18. Incumbent Democrat Betty McCollum, who has represented the district since 2001 and won reelection in 2024 with roughly 67% of the vote, faces only a minor primary challenge from Aswar Rahman ahead of the August 11, 2026, Democratic primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting consistent partisan voting patterns and limited Republican recruitment or fundraising in the district. McCollum's recent activity as Ranking Member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense has kept her visible on national security and appropriations issues without generating district-level controversy. Trader consensus at 93.5% for Democrats aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of any competitive Republican candidate or polling movement. Realistic challenges would require an unforeseen event such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting McCollum, a highly unusual primary upset, or an extraordinary national political shift capable of overcoming the district's entrenched partisan lean.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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