The strong Democratic lean of Minnesota's 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Betty McCollum faces only token primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest and benefits from consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Republican primary candidates remain largely unknown outside local circles, and no recent polling or developments indicate meaningful erosion of the district's structural advantage. Late-cycle national shifts, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican nominee could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly partisan districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 2026 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
MN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
7%
$11,370 Vol.
$11,370 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$3,370 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$8,000 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Minnesota's 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Betty McCollum faces only token primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest and benefits from consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Republican primary candidates remain largely unknown outside local circles, and no recent polling or developments indicate meaningful erosion of the district's structural advantage. Late-cycle national shifts, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican nominee could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly partisan districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$11,370Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Democratic lean of Minnesota's 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Betty McCollum faces only token primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest and benefits from consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Republican primary candidates remain largely unknown outside local circles, and no recent polling or developments indicate meaningful erosion of the district's structural advantage. Late-cycle national shifts, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican nominee could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly partisan districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$11,370Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Democratic lean of Minnesota's 4th congressional district, anchored in the St. Paul area with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+18, underpins the 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Betty McCollum faces only token primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contest and benefits from consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from nonpartisan forecasters. Republican primary candidates remain largely unknown outside local circles, and no recent polling or developments indicate meaningful erosion of the district's structural advantage. Late-cycle national shifts, a major scandal affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Republican nominee could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in similarly partisan districts suggest limited realistic paths to an upset before the November 2026 general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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