Narendra Modi’s third consecutive term as Prime Minister, secured in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, runs until 2029 with no intervening national polls or constitutional term limits requiring departure by December 31, 2026. Recent milestones, including surpassing Jawaharlal Nehru’s elected tenure record in June 2026, underscore his continued leadership within the BJP-led NDA coalition. Official government actions, such as ongoing parliamentary sessions and cabinet adjustments focused on the 2029 contest, show no signs of transition. Repeated debunkings of fabricated resignation claims by the Press Information Bureau further align with the absence of verifiable developments pointing to an early exit. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% “No” probability accounts for this stable institutional position while acknowledging that unforeseen events like health developments or coalition shifts could still alter the outlook in the short window.