Microsoft’s MAI-Thinking-1, a 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE reasoning model with 256k context, debuted at Build 2026 in June as the company’s first fully in-house large language model trained from scratch on licensed enterprise data without third-party distillation. It matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and reaches competitive SWE-Bench Pro scores while emphasizing lower inference costs and integration with Azure Foundry and GitHub Copilot. Trader sentiment reflects Microsoft’s broader strategy to diversify beyond OpenAI partnerships, yet the market prices modest odds for a public successor by year-end because no follow-on reasoning model has been announced since the August public preview. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results, or expanded availability on third-party platforms that could signal accelerated iteration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourNOUVEAU
30 sept. 2026
September 30
26%
December 31
51%
$489 Vol.
September 30
$188 Vol.
26%
December 31
$301 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s MAI-Thinking-1, a 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE reasoning model with 256k context, debuted at Build 2026 in June as the company’s first fully in-house large language model trained from scratch on licensed enterprise data without third-party distillation. It matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and reaches competitive SWE-Bench Pro scores while emphasizing lower inference costs and integration with Azure Foundry and GitHub Copilot. Trader sentiment reflects Microsoft’s broader strategy to diversify beyond OpenAI partnerships, yet the market prices modest odds for a public successor by year-end because no follow-on reasoning model has been announced since the August public preview. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results, or expanded availability on third-party platforms that could signal accelerated iteration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Volume
$489Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft’s MAI-Thinking-1, a 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE reasoning model with 256k context, debuted at Build 2026 in June as the company’s first fully in-house large language model trained from scratch on licensed enterprise data without third-party distillation. It matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and reaches competitive SWE-Bench Pro scores while emphasizing lower inference costs and integration with Azure Foundry and GitHub Copilot. Trader sentiment reflects Microsoft’s broader strategy to diversify beyond OpenAI partnerships, yet the market prices modest odds for a public successor by year-end because no follow-on reasoning model has been announced since the August public preview. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results, or expanded availability on third-party platforms that could signal accelerated iteration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$489Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Microsoft’s MAI-Thinking-1, a 35B-active-parameter sparse MoE reasoning model with 256k context, debuted at Build 2026 in June as the company’s first fully in-house large language model trained from scratch on licensed enterprise data without third-party distillation. It matches or exceeds Claude Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations and reaches competitive SWE-Bench Pro scores while emphasizing lower inference costs and integration with Azure Foundry and GitHub Copilot. Trader sentiment reflects Microsoft’s broader strategy to diversify beyond OpenAI partnerships, yet the market prices modest odds for a public successor by year-end because no follow-on reasoning model has been announced since the August public preview. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results, or expanded availability on third-party platforms that could signal accelerated iteration.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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