Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 4,000-4,500 delays (49.5%) and 3,000-3,500 (48.0%) for March 26, reflecting high uncertainty amid peak spring break travel demand and variable weather patterns. Recent days show volatility: March 24 logged around 3,200 delays due to calm conditions, while March 25 surged past 4,500 from Northeast winds and FAA ground delays at major hubs like Atlanta and Chicago. Persistent ATC staffing shortages and potential thunderstorms forecast by NOAA in the Southeast keep the race tight, as even minor convective activity or convective weather could push totals higher. Separation may come from real-time FAA advisories or DOT delay reports by evening peak hours.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNumber of US Flights Delayed March 26?
Number of US Flights Delayed March 26?
4,000-4,500 50%
3,000-3,500 48%
3,500-4,000 43%
4,500-5,000 36%
$904 Vol.
$904 Vol.
<3,000
19%
3,000-3,500
48%
3,500-4,000
43%
4,000-4,500
50%
4,500-5,000
36%
5,000-5,500
34%
5,500-6,000
35%
>6,000
32%
4,000-4,500 50%
3,000-3,500 48%
3,500-4,000 43%
4,500-5,000 36%
$904 Vol.
$904 Vol.
<3,000
19%
3,000-3,500
48%
3,500-4,000
43%
4,000-4,500
50%
4,500-5,000
36%
5,000-5,500
34%
5,500-6,000
35%
>6,000
32%
The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total delays within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to the lowest available bracket.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterdayResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 4,000-4,500 delays (49.5%) and 3,000-3,500 (48.0%) for March 26, reflecting high uncertainty amid peak spring break travel demand and variable weather patterns. Recent days show volatility: March 24 logged around 3,200 delays due to calm conditions, while March 25 surged past 4,500 from Northeast winds and FAA ground delays at major hubs like Atlanta and Chicago. Persistent ATC staffing shortages and potential thunderstorms forecast by NOAA in the Southeast keep the race tight, as even minor convective activity or convective weather could push totals higher. Separation may come from real-time FAA advisories or DOT delay reports by evening peak hours.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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