No formal indictments, arrest warrants, or executed detentions have been issued against Barack Obama despite 2025 referrals from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and related Department of Justice reviews of Obama-era intelligence handling. Traders assign 97 percent probability to no arrest by December 31, 2026, reflecting procedural realities: statutes of limitations, evidentiary standards for charging a former president, and the extended timeline required to move from grand jury activity to physical custody. Political statements and declassified document releases have fueled public discussion but produced no confirmed charges. A sudden escalation in active investigations could theoretically produce an indictment and warrant execution before year-end, though such an outcome faces substantial legal and institutional constraints.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
3% chance
$21,908 Vol.
$21,908 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$21,908 Vol.
$21,908 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No formal indictments, arrest warrants, or executed detentions have been issued against Barack Obama despite 2025 referrals from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and related Department of Justice reviews of Obama-era intelligence handling. Traders assign 97 percent probability to no arrest by December 31, 2026, reflecting procedural realities: statutes of limitations, evidentiary standards for charging a former president, and the extended timeline required to move from grand jury activity to physical custody. Political statements and declassified document releases have fueled public discussion but produced no confirmed charges. A sudden escalation in active investigations could theoretically produce an indictment and warrant execution before year-end, though such an outcome faces substantial legal and institutional constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$21,908Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No formal indictments, arrest warrants, or executed detentions have been issued against Barack Obama despite 2025 referrals from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and related Department of Justice reviews of Obama-era intelligence handling. Traders assign 97 percent probability to no arrest by December 31, 2026, reflecting procedural realities: statutes of limitations, evidentiary standards for charging a former president, and the extended timeline required to move from grand jury activity to physical custody. Political statements and declassified document releases have fueled public discussion but produced no confirmed charges. A sudden escalation in active investigations could theoretically produce an indictment and warrant execution before year-end, though such an outcome faces substantial legal and institutional constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$21,908Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...No formal indictments, arrest warrants, or executed detentions have been issued against Barack Obama despite 2025 referrals from Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and related Department of Justice reviews of Obama-era intelligence handling. Traders assign 97 percent probability to no arrest by December 31, 2026, reflecting procedural realities: statutes of limitations, evidentiary standards for charging a former president, and the extended timeline required to move from grand jury activity to physical custody. Political statements and declassified document releases have fueled public discussion but produced no confirmed charges. A sudden escalation in active investigations could theoretically produce an indictment and warrant execution before year-end, though such an outcome faces substantial legal and institutional constraints.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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