Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on active criminal investigations and outstanding warrants against several public figures, with probabilities reflecting the timing, jurisdiction, and political feasibility of arrests by the end of 2026. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces formal charges in Spain for influence peddling and money laundering tied to a 2021 airline bailout, including a scheduled court appearance that has elevated his profile. Benjamin Netanyahu remains subject to an ICC arrest warrant issued in late 2024 over alleged war crimes, though enforcement depends on travel to member states amid ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. Separate U.S. proceedings target former intelligence officials and other domestic figures amid shifting DOJ priorities, while South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung contends with parallel legal scrutiny. Markets assign higher shares to outcomes with imminent procedural steps or cross-border enforcement risks, while discounting those reliant on uncertain political shifts or stalled domestic cases. Upcoming court dates and potential international travel in the second half of 2026 represent the clearest near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$126,514 Vol.
Mahmoud Khalil
53%
Susan Rice
50%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
30%
James Clapper
17%
Tom Homan
20%
Brandon Johnson
25%
James Comey
17%
Letitia James
27%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Gavin Newsom
8%
Candace Owens
8%
Adam Schiff
8%
Anthony Fauci
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
13%
Hillary Clinton
6%
John Kerry
6%
Kash Patel
6%
Lisa Cook
5%
Pam Bondi
5%
Joe Biden
4%
Lee Jun-seok
18%
Bill Clinton
4%
Barack Obama
4%
John Brennan
61%
$126,514 Vol.
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,211 Vol.
53%
Susan Rice
$262 Vol.
50%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$7,985 Vol.
30%
James Clapper
$2,672 Vol.
17%
Tom Homan
$29,900 Vol.
20%
Brandon Johnson
$1,887 Vol.
25%
James Comey
$9,244 Vol.
17%
Letitia James
$1,340 Vol.
27%
Loretta Lynch
$472 Vol.
11%
Gavin Newsom
$25,011 Vol.
8%
Candace Owens
$257 Vol.
8%
Adam Schiff
$6,790 Vol.
8%
Anthony Fauci
$8,335 Vol.
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$275 Vol.
13%
Hillary Clinton
$15,653 Vol.
6%
John Kerry
$127 Vol.
6%
Kash Patel
$213 Vol.
6%
Lisa Cook
$660 Vol.
5%
Pam Bondi
$1,546 Vol.
5%
Joe Biden
$2,047 Vol.
4%
Lee Jun-seok
$555 Vol.
18%
Bill Clinton
$434 Vol.
4%
Barack Obama
$2,857 Vol.
4%
John Brennan
$6,780 Vol.
61%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on active criminal investigations and outstanding warrants against several public figures, with probabilities reflecting the timing, jurisdiction, and political feasibility of arrests by the end of 2026. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces formal charges in Spain for influence peddling and money laundering tied to a 2021 airline bailout, including a scheduled court appearance that has elevated his profile. Benjamin Netanyahu remains subject to an ICC arrest warrant issued in late 2024 over alleged war crimes, though enforcement depends on travel to member states amid ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. Separate U.S. proceedings target former intelligence officials and other domestic figures amid shifting DOJ priorities, while South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung contends with parallel legal scrutiny. Markets assign higher shares to outcomes with imminent procedural steps or cross-border enforcement risks, while discounting those reliant on uncertain political shifts or stalled domestic cases. Upcoming court dates and potential international travel in the second half of 2026 represent the clearest near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$126,514Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on active criminal investigations and outstanding warrants against several public figures, with probabilities reflecting the timing, jurisdiction, and political feasibility of arrests by the end of 2026. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces formal charges in Spain for influence peddling and money laundering tied to a 2021 airline bailout, including a scheduled court appearance that has elevated his profile. Benjamin Netanyahu remains subject to an ICC arrest warrant issued in late 2024 over alleged war crimes, though enforcement depends on travel to member states amid ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. Separate U.S. proceedings target former intelligence officials and other domestic figures amid shifting DOJ priorities, while South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung contends with parallel legal scrutiny. Markets assign higher shares to outcomes with imminent procedural steps or cross-border enforcement risks, while discounting those reliant on uncertain political shifts or stalled domestic cases. Upcoming court dates and potential international travel in the second half of 2026 represent the clearest near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$126,514Marché ouvert
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on active criminal investigations and outstanding warrants against several public figures, with probabilities reflecting the timing, jurisdiction, and political feasibility of arrests by the end of 2026. José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero faces formal charges in Spain for influence peddling and money laundering tied to a 2021 airline bailout, including a scheduled court appearance that has elevated his profile. Benjamin Netanyahu remains subject to an ICC arrest warrant issued in late 2024 over alleged war crimes, though enforcement depends on travel to member states amid ongoing diplomatic maneuvering. Separate U.S. proceedings target former intelligence officials and other domestic figures amid shifting DOJ priorities, while South Korean opposition leader Lee Jae-myung contends with parallel legal scrutiny. Markets assign higher shares to outcomes with imminent procedural steps or cross-border enforcement risks, while discounting those reliant on uncertain political shifts or stalled domestic cases. Upcoming court dates and potential international travel in the second half of 2026 represent the clearest near-term catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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