The strong El Niño now intensifying across the tropical Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +3.0 °C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +4 °C by late 2026—represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly in the 1.35–1.39 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.27 °C per decade, pushing monthly values well above the 1850–1900 baseline as tracked by ERA5 and other reanalyses. Recent observations confirm September 2026 already tracking near or above 1.6 °C in early estimates, consistent with the lag between Pacific heating and global response, while model spreads highlight remaining uncertainty from atmospheric variability and exact peak timing. Official NOAA and ECMWF guidance, updated through mid-September, continues to inform market consensus ahead of final monthly data releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourSeptembre 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
Septembre 2026 Augmentation de la température (ºC)
1,35–1,39ºC 49%
1,40–1,44ºC 34%
1,30–1,34ºC 17%
>1,49ºC 5.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 nov. 2026
<1,30ºC
5%
1,30–1,34ºC
17%
1,35–1,39ºC
49%
1,40–1,44ºC
34%
1,45–1,49ºC
9%
>1,49ºC
5%
1,35–1,39ºC 49%
1,40–1,44ºC 34%
1,30–1,34ºC 17%
>1,49ºC 5.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 nov. 2026
<1,30ºC
$222 Vol.
5%
1,30–1,34ºC
$1,563 Vol.
17%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
34%
1,45–1,49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1,49ºC
$363 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The strong El Niño now intensifying across the tropical Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +3.0 °C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +4 °C by late 2026—represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly in the 1.35–1.39 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.27 °C per decade, pushing monthly values well above the 1850–1900 baseline as tracked by ERA5 and other reanalyses. Recent observations confirm September 2026 already tracking near or above 1.6 °C in early estimates, consistent with the lag between Pacific heating and global response, while model spreads highlight remaining uncertainty from atmospheric variability and exact peak timing. Official NOAA and ECMWF guidance, updated through mid-September, continues to inform market consensus ahead of final monthly data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Marché ouvert : Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$2,272Date de fin
2 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETSource de résolution
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The strong El Niño now intensifying across the tropical Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +3.0 °C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +4 °C by late 2026—represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly in the 1.35–1.39 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.27 °C per decade, pushing monthly values well above the 1850–1900 baseline as tracked by ERA5 and other reanalyses. Recent observations confirm September 2026 already tracking near or above 1.6 °C in early estimates, consistent with the lag between Pacific heating and global response, while model spreads highlight remaining uncertainty from atmospheric variability and exact peak timing. Official NOAA and ECMWF guidance, updated through mid-September, continues to inform market consensus ahead of final monthly data releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$2,272Date de fin
2 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETSource de résolution
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The strong El Niño now intensifying across the tropical Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies recently reaching +3.0 °C and multi-model forecasts pointing to a historic peak near +4 °C by late 2026—represents the dominant near-term driver elevating trader-implied probabilities for a September 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly in the 1.35–1.39 °C range. This event builds on the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.27 °C per decade, pushing monthly values well above the 1850–1900 baseline as tracked by ERA5 and other reanalyses. Recent observations confirm September 2026 already tracking near or above 1.6 °C in early estimates, consistent with the lag between Pacific heating and global response, while model spreads highlight remaining uncertainty from atmospheric variability and exact peak timing. Official NOAA and ECMWF guidance, updated through mid-September, continues to inform market consensus ahead of final monthly data releases.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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