Trader consensus heavily favors a 2026 Arctic minimum sea ice extent in the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer range, reflecting NSIDC observations that August extent averaged 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude conditions slowed losses. Persistent atmospheric patterns and relatively cool ocean temperatures in the central Arctic Ocean limited further rapid decline, aligning with post-2010 averages rather than record-shattering lows. This outcome sits well below the 1981-2010 baseline yet avoids extremes seen in years with stronger melt-favoring weather. The minimum is expected mid-September, when NSIDC will confirm the final daily extent against standard satellite-derived thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourÉtendue minimale de la glace de mer arctique cet été ?
Étendue minimale de la glace de mer arctique cet été ?
4,4-4,6 M km² 78.3%
4,2-4,4m km² 18.9%
<4 M km² 1.5%
4,0-4,2 M km² 1.1%
$78,115 Vol.
$78,115 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
<4 M km²
2%
4,0-4,2 M km²
1%
4,2-4,4m km²
19%
4,4-4,6 M km²
73%
4,6-4,8 millions de km²
1%
4,8-5 millions de km²
1%
5M+ km²
<1%
4,4-4,6 M km² 78.3%
4,2-4,4m km² 18.9%
<4 M km² 1.5%
4,0-4,2 M km² 1.1%
$78,115 Vol.
$78,115 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
<4 M km²
$33,489 Vol.
2%
4,0-4,2 M km²
$7,402 Vol.
1%
4,2-4,4m km²
$3,682 Vol.
19%
4,4-4,6 M km²
$4,039 Vol.
73%
4,6-4,8 millions de km²
$10,207 Vol.
1%
4,8-5 millions de km²
$4,284 Vol.
1%
5M+ km²
$15,013 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors a 2026 Arctic minimum sea ice extent in the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer range, reflecting NSIDC observations that August extent averaged 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude conditions slowed losses. Persistent atmospheric patterns and relatively cool ocean temperatures in the central Arctic Ocean limited further rapid decline, aligning with post-2010 averages rather than record-shattering lows. This outcome sits well below the 1981-2010 baseline yet avoids extremes seen in years with stronger melt-favoring weather. The minimum is expected mid-September, when NSIDC will confirm the final daily extent against standard satellite-derived thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$78,115Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus heavily favors a 2026 Arctic minimum sea ice extent in the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer range, reflecting NSIDC observations that August extent averaged 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude conditions slowed losses. Persistent atmospheric patterns and relatively cool ocean temperatures in the central Arctic Ocean limited further rapid decline, aligning with post-2010 averages rather than record-shattering lows. This outcome sits well below the 1981-2010 baseline yet avoids extremes seen in years with stronger melt-favoring weather. The minimum is expected mid-September, when NSIDC will confirm the final daily extent against standard satellite-derived thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$78,115Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETRésolveur
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors a 2026 Arctic minimum sea ice extent in the 4.4-4.6 million square kilometer range, reflecting NSIDC observations that August extent averaged 5.56 million square kilometers—the seventh lowest on record—after early-summer melt tracked 2012 levels before cooler high-latitude conditions slowed losses. Persistent atmospheric patterns and relatively cool ocean temperatures in the central Arctic Ocean limited further rapid decline, aligning with post-2010 averages rather than record-shattering lows. This outcome sits well below the 1981-2010 baseline yet avoids extremes seen in years with stronger melt-favoring weather. The minimum is expected mid-September, when NSIDC will confirm the final daily extent against standard satellite-derived thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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