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icon for Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ?

Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ?

icon for Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ?

Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ?

Catégorie 4 51%

Catégorie 5 50%

Catégorie 3 21%

Catégorie 2 3.0%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Catégorie 4 51%

Catégorie 5 50%

Catégorie 3 21%

Catégorie 2 3.0%

Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Catégorie 1 ou moins forte

$172 Vol.

1%

Catégorie 2

$51 Vol.

3%

Catégorie 3

$0 Vol.

21%

Catégorie 4

$80 Vol.

47%

Catégorie 5

$0 Vol.

50%

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.Recent NHC observations show Hurricane Polo rapidly intensifying off southwestern Mexico, with sustained winds reaching 95–110 kt as of early September 22. Exceptional ocean heat content and minimal wind shear have fueled this strengthening, consistent with SHIPS rapid intensification indices exceeding 80 percent probability for a 40+ kt increase within 24 hours. Official guidance peaks the storm at 140 kt (Category 5) before potential eyewall replacement cycles and rising easterly shear introduce intensity fluctuations. These model consensus details and observed structural improvements explain the near-even market-implied odds between Category 4 and 5 outcomes, while lower probabilities for Category 3 or weaker reflect the strong environmental support for major hurricane status through midweek.

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.

Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.

If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.

A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
Volume
$303
Date de fin
16 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.Recent NHC observations show Hurricane Polo rapidly intensifying off southwestern Mexico, with sustained winds reaching 95–110 kt as of early September 22. Exceptional ocean heat content and minimal wind shear have fueled this strengthening, consistent with SHIPS rapid intensification indices exceeding 80 percent probability for a 40+ kt increase within 24 hours. Official guidance peaks the storm at 140 kt (Category 5) before potential eyewall replacement cycles and rising easterly shear introduce intensity fluctuations. These model consensus details and observed structural improvements explain the near-even market-implied odds between Category 4 and 5 outcomes, while lower probabilities for Category 3 or weaker reflect the strong environmental support for major hurricane status through midweek.

This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm.

The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category.

Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution.

This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point.

If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources.

A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Hurricane Polo. Peak intensity means the highest Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale category assigned to Polo in any Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory issued for the storm. The category is stated in the advisory and is determined by maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average): Category 1 is 74 to 95 mph, Category 2 is 96 to 110 mph, Category 3 is 111 to 129 mph, Category 4 is 130 to 156 mph, and Category 5 is 157 mph or greater. Each category includes both of its stated bounds, so every possible peak wind speed falls in exactly one category. Wind speeds will be used exactly as published by the National Hurricane Center, without rounding. The National Hurricane Center reports maximum sustained winds in increments of 5 mph. Post-storm best track data and the Tropical Cyclone Report for Polo will not be considered for resolution. Advisories issued by any agency other than the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once Polo dissipates. If Polo has not dissipated by October 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open for up to 2 calendar days (ET) after that date; it will then resolve based on the finalized advisory data published up to that point. If the data remains unavailable at that point, or the National Hurricane Center has discontinued publication, this market will resolve according to the highest category assigned to Polo in any advisory published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after such data is first released to allow for corrections; this applies only to clerical or similar errors, not to the National Hurricane Center differing from other sources. A reanalysis or reclassification of Polo's intensity published after Polo dissipates will not change the resolution of this market. Revisions published before Polo dissipates will be considered; revisions published after it dissipates will not be considered for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories issued for Polo by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), specifically the category and the maximum sustained wind speed stated in the advisory.
Volume
$303
Date de fin
16 oct. 2026
Marché ouvert
Sep 21, 2026, 5:11 PM ET

Source de résolution

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Résolveur

0x69c47De9D...

Connexes

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Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Catégorie 5 » à 50%, suivi de « Catégorie 4 » à 47%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 50¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 50% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Sep 21, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ? », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ? » est « Catégorie 5 » à 50%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 50% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Catégorie 4 » à 47%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Quelle sera la force de l'ouragan Polo ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.