Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and President Zelenskyy’s recent public statements continue to anchor trader expectations against any near-term agreement to forgo accession before 2027. Zelenskyy has described full alliance membership as a potential security guarantee and diplomatic path out of the conflict, while NATO allies have sustained military aid pledges through 2027 and expanded Ukraine’s role in exercise planning without conditioning support on neutrality. Official Ukrainian positions have rejected any renunciation of Euro-Atlantic integration in peace frameworks, and no bilateral or multilateral statements have signaled a shift toward delayed or conditional accession. These factors align with the 93.5% implied probability that no such agreement will materialize.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
7% chance
$153,520 Vol.
$153,520 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
7% chance
$153,520 Vol.
$153,520 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and President Zelenskyy’s recent public statements continue to anchor trader expectations against any near-term agreement to forgo accession before 2027. Zelenskyy has described full alliance membership as a potential security guarantee and diplomatic path out of the conflict, while NATO allies have sustained military aid pledges through 2027 and expanded Ukraine’s role in exercise planning without conditioning support on neutrality. Official Ukrainian positions have rejected any renunciation of Euro-Atlantic integration in peace frameworks, and no bilateral or multilateral statements have signaled a shift toward delayed or conditional accession. These factors align with the 93.5% implied probability that no such agreement will materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Volume
$153,520Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and President Zelenskyy’s recent public statements continue to anchor trader expectations against any near-term agreement to forgo accession before 2027. Zelenskyy has described full alliance membership as a potential security guarantee and diplomatic path out of the conflict, while NATO allies have sustained military aid pledges through 2027 and expanded Ukraine’s role in exercise planning without conditioning support on neutrality. Official Ukrainian positions have rejected any renunciation of Euro-Atlantic integration in peace frameworks, and no bilateral or multilateral statements have signaled a shift toward delayed or conditional accession. These factors align with the 93.5% implied probability that no such agreement will materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$153,520Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and President Zelenskyy’s recent public statements continue to anchor trader expectations against any near-term agreement to forgo accession before 2027. Zelenskyy has described full alliance membership as a potential security guarantee and diplomatic path out of the conflict, while NATO allies have sustained military aid pledges through 2027 and expanded Ukraine’s role in exercise planning without conditioning support on neutrality. Official Ukrainian positions have rejected any renunciation of Euro-Atlantic integration in peace frameworks, and no bilateral or multilateral statements have signaled a shift toward delayed or conditional accession. These factors align with the 93.5% implied probability that no such agreement will materialize.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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