**Traders assign an 8.5% chance that NATO will invoke Article 5 before 2027 because no armed attack on alliance territory has occurred or appears imminent.** Russia remains heavily committed in Ukraine, limiting its capacity for a direct challenge to NATO’s eastern flank in the near term, while hybrid activities such as sabotage and airspace violations stay below the threshold for collective defense. NATO has responded with enhanced forward deployments, exercises, and calls for higher European defense spending rather than activation of Article 5. US policy emphasizes burden-sharing and a potential drawdown of certain commitments by 2027, but this has not produced intra-alliance conflict or any move that would trigger the clause. Article 5 has been invoked only once in history (after 9/11), and current conditions—stable deterrence, Ukrainian non-membership, and consensus-driven decision-making—support the market’s strong expectation that no qualifying armed attack will materialize before the end of 2026.