The Lebanese government’s phased “Homeland Shield” plan, launched after the November 2024 U.S.-brokered ceasefire, remains the central driver of trader views on whether Hezbollah will formally commit to full disarmament by late 2026. Phase 1 south of the Litani River reached completion in early 2026, with the Lebanese Armed Forces deploying thousands of troops and removing thousands of weapons under U.S.-monitored verification. Phase 2, covering territory to the Awali River, received a renewable four-month mandate in February 2026, yet Hezbollah has publicly rejected the timeline and any extension of the process north of the Litani, framing it as serving Israeli interests. Israeli officials have described southern progress as insufficient, while U.S. pressure and the pending December 2026 end of the UNIFIL mandate continue to shape the negotiating environment. Direct Lebanon-Israel talks have been floated as a possible accelerator, but Hezbollah’s political and military posture inside Lebanon will determine whether the state monopoly on arms advances further by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLe Hezbollah va-t-il désarmer d'ici... ?
$2,961,810 Vol.

31 décembre
13%
$2,961,810 Vol.

31 décembre
13%
Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Feb 2, 2026, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Only announcements supported by the Secretary-General of Hezbollah (currently Naim Qassem), a direct successor, or, if the position of Secretary-General of Hezbollah is vacant, the widely acknowledged leadership of Hezbollah will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in Lebanon.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hezbollah leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The Lebanese government’s phased “Homeland Shield” plan, launched after the November 2024 U.S.-brokered ceasefire, remains the central driver of trader views on whether Hezbollah will formally commit to full disarmament by late 2026. Phase 1 south of the Litani River reached completion in early 2026, with the Lebanese Armed Forces deploying thousands of troops and removing thousands of weapons under U.S.-monitored verification. Phase 2, covering territory to the Awali River, received a renewable four-month mandate in February 2026, yet Hezbollah has publicly rejected the timeline and any extension of the process north of the Litani, framing it as serving Israeli interests. Israeli officials have described southern progress as insufficient, while U.S. pressure and the pending December 2026 end of the UNIFIL mandate continue to shape the negotiating environment. Direct Lebanon-Israel talks have been floated as a possible accelerator, but Hezbollah’s political and military posture inside Lebanon will determine whether the state monopoly on arms advances further by year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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